000 AGXX40 KNHC 191734 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 134 PM EDT THU MAR 19 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. 1017 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF THIS MORNING...DELIVERING LIGHT TO MODERATE SE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF. OBSERVATIONS INDICATED AREAS OF FOG...INCLUDING SOME DENSE FOG...OVER MOSTLY THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. THIS WILL LIFT OR BURN OFF THROUGH LATE MORNING...BUT PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT. THE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH 1 TO 3 FT SEAS OVERALL IN LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW...AND CALMER CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN GULF NEAR THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE. SE FLOW ACROSS YUCATAN IS ALLOWING HIGH TEMPS NEAR 100F AT MERIDA MEXICO...AN INDICATION THAT LATE EVENING TROUGHING WILL SET UP OVER THE NW YUCATAN. GLOBAL MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS WITH NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT EACH EVENING THROUGH SAT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT INDICATING A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUN AND MON...SUPPORTING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEAK UPPER SUPPORT ALONG WITH THE INCREASING SUN ANGLES AS SPRING APPROACHES WILL ALLOW THE AIRMASS TO MODIFY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN ACCORDINGLY THROUGH TUE. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE FRESH TO POSSIBLY STRONG NE WINDS BY LATE MON OVER THE FAR NE GULF IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA. OTHERWISE GENERALLY MODERATE NORTHERLY WILL FOLLOW THE WEAKENING FRONT ACROSS THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK ATLC RIDGING N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT PULSES OF 20-25 KT NE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD... DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT BY LATE MORNING. MODERATE TRADES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...EXCEPT FRESH NE-E TRADES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF THE WINDWARDS ON THU EVENING. SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL REMAIN E OF 55W. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON SAT WITH MODERATE TRADES FORECAST E OF THE WINDWARDS AGAIN. FRESH ESE TRADES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND ON FRI...SAT AND SUN NIGHTS...WITH GUIDANCE HINTING AT STRONG E WINDS BRIEFLY ON SAT NIGHT. REINFORCING N SWELL WILL PROPAGATE S INTO THE ATLC WATERS E OF THE LEEWARDS LATE FRI AFTERNOON...BUILDING COMBINED SEAS TO 6-8 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD FURTHER S ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS E OF THE WINDWARDS ON SAT..THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY SUN AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...SWELL TO 6 FT WILL PENETRATE ATLC PASSAGES IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SAT AND SUN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLING ALONG 27N THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIFT N THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS SHOWING WEAK LOW PRES FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATE TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE MID/UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING E TO SE WINDS TO INCREASE N OF 28N TONIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES AND HIGH PRES FARTHER TO THE NE. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF 28N AS IT REEMERGES OFF THE SE GEORGIA COAST EARLY FRI AND SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY SAT. THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG ROUGHLY 26N BY LATE SAT AND DRIFT N LEAVING A WEAK PRES PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. A STRONG MID/UPPER IMPULSE WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY EARLY MON ALLOWING THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST EARLY MON. THERE IS A LOOSE CONSENSUS AMONG GLOBAL MODELS CONCERNING THE LIKELIHOOD AND TIMING OF WEAK LOW PRES ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT SOME DISAGREEMENTS ON POSITION AND STRENGTH. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT HOWEVER CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA BY LATE MON BEHIND THE FRONT AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH REACHING ROUGHLY 25N THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY LATE TUE...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH E FLOW N OF THE BOUNDARY. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.