000 AGXX40 KNHC 170535 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 135 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY THE PAST 24 HOURS AND IS NOW ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY A 5-10 KT WIND SHIFT...EXCEPT FOR LAST EVENINGS 10-15 KT NE-E SURGE THAT OCCURRED ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THAT IS PROPAGATING W ACROSS THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE N OF THE TROUGH. GUIDANCE STILL HANGS ON TO THIS WEAKENING TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF THROUGH WED MORNING. THE EVENING ENHANCEMENT OF NE 10-15 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING THROUGH THU EVENING...THEN A LITTLE STRONGER EVENT IS EXPECTED ON FRI AND SAT NIGHTS PRODUCING NE 15-20 KT WINDS. THESE WIND PULSES WILL SHIFT W ACROSS THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE WHILE CLOCKING TO THE SE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND DISSIPATE OVER THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE MORNING. FURTHER N...A SURFACE HIGH WILL MEANDER OVER THE N-CENTRAL GULF THROUGH WED...THEN SHIFT SE TO OVER THE SE GULF ON THU AND THU NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE NE GULF. THIS SYNOPTIC SITUATION WILL SET UP ANTICYCLONIC 5-10 KT FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF FROM TUE THROUGH THU NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR THE FOR A 5-10 KT SW-W-NW WINDS SHIFT NEAR THE WEAK FRONT. THE HIGH CENTER WILL LOSE IDENTITY ON FRI AS A POST-FRONTAL RIDGE BUILDS SE FROM THE MS DELTA TO FL BAY. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ON SAT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW GULF WITH NE 20 KT POST-FRONTAL FLOW AND PRECEDED BY SOUTHERLY 101-5 KT FLOW. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE MS DELTA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON SUN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAKENING ATLC RIDGING N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT STRONG 20-25 KT NE WINDS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING WITH THE AFFECTED AREA SHRINKING CLOSER TO THE COLOMBIAN COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHTS EVENT. EXPECT THESE NOCTURNAL 20-25 WINDS TO ONLY EXTEND ABOUT 75 NM FROM THE COLOMBIAN COAST ON WED...THU..FRI AND SAT NIGHTS. MODERATE TRADES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN FRESH E TRADES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF THE WINDWARDS ON THU...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT ON FRI. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON SAT WITH MODERATE TRADES E OF THE WINDWARDS AGAIN. FRESH ESE TRADES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON THU AND FRI NIGHTS...WITH GUIDANCE HINTING AT STRONG E WINDS BRIEFLY ON SAT NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N51W TO 22N61W TO THE SE BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE SE AND GRADUALLY WASH OUT ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 55W...BUT THE RESULTANT NW SWELL HAS BUILT COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS TO 8-13 FT...WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF 8 FT SEAS REACHING ALONG 24N ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS BETWEEN 70-55W. THESE SEAS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE FROM THE W TODAY AND TONIGHT. A POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR 28N75W WILL SHIFT SE TO NEAR 25N65W TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT SE TO NEAR 24N62W ON WED. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS N OF THE RIDGE TONIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 30N AS FAR AS 900 NM E OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS TO THE CAY SAL BANK EARLY WED...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW BRIEFLY INCREASING TO 20-25 KT N OF 30N W OF THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON WED NIGHT WITH FRONT STALLING FROM 29N55W TO 27N65W TO 23N80W. THE SEGMENT OF THE FRONT W OF 75W WILL MOVE N AS WARM FRONT OVER THE FL STRAITS ON WED EVENING AND PASS THROUGH THE BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE BAHAMA CHANNEL LATE WED NIGHT...THEN ACCELERATE NE ON THU WITH E-SE FLOW INCREASING TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS NE OF THE FRONT AND W OF 70W. THE THIRD COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW WATERS ON THU NIGHT...AND RACE E REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS LATE FRI NIGHT...THEN STALL FROM 31N61W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON SAT NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.