000 AGXX40 KNHC 161823 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 223 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND EXTENDS FROM 26N97W TO TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 KT ARE STILL NOTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE FRONT FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE SW GULF THROUGH EARLY WED. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE WITH A 1024 MB HIGH PRES OVER THE SE CONUS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS WITH A WEAK HIGH PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE NW GULF LATE TODAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT E ACROSS THE N CENTRAL WATERS ON TUE...THEN MOVE OVER THE SE GULF WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH FRI NIGHT. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 4 FT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ENHANCED NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE EVENINGS DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL WATERS ON FRI FOLLOWED BY GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED NE TO E WINDS 0F 25-30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHILE AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEA HEIGHTS OF AROUND 12 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. THE PRES GRADIENT IS WEAKENING ACROSS THE BASIN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SW N ATLC. DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING LATE NIGHT HOURS. MODERATE TRADES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE TO 15-20 KT E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON THU. FRESH ESE TRADES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON FRI NIGHT. ANOTHER SET OF NORTHERLY SWELL WILL REACH THE ATLANTIC WATERS OF LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON WED. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 28N65W TO THE NW BAHAMAS. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA NW OF THE FRONT TO ABOUT 70W...AND ALSO AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 28N TO NEAR 55W. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE NE WATERS THIS EVENING...BUT SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO AROUND 12 FT IN NW SWELL ACROSS THE FORECAST ZONE AMZ115. THEN...HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST REGION TUE AND WED WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS TUE NIGHT WITH INCREASING SW TO W WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE FAR N WATERS. MAINLY FRESH WINDS AND RAISING SEAS TO 8 FT ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS SECOND FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS ON WED...THEN STALL ALONG 27N WED NIGHT...AND MOVE N AS A WARM FRONT EARLY THU THROUGH LATE FRI. A THIRD WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS ON FRI REACHING FROM 31N70W TO CAPE CANAVERAL ON FRI NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N AT