000 AGXX40 KNHC 150548 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 148 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS WILL MOVE E AND DISSIPATE OVER THE FL PENINSULA TODAY. A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MS DELTA WILL SHIFT NW OF THE GULF TODAY SETTING UP A RIDGE FROM THE MS DELTA TO FL BAY TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT HAS WEAKENED TO A BROAD TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL GULF TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS SOUTHERN PORTION WILL GRADUALLY BECOME A NW-SE ORIENTATED LOW LEVEL TROUGH FROM 25N96W TO 20N90W BY THIS EVENING. THE GRADIENT WILL THEN TIGHTEN WITH NW 20-30 KT WINDS DEVELOPING EARLY TONIGHT SW OF THE TROUGH... WHILE N-NE 15-20 KT WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL GULF WATERS AROUND THE N PORTION OF THE TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS REVERSED...AND IS NOW LESS AGGRESSIVE THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING THE BOUT OF NW 20-30 KT WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY MON MORNING. THE GRADIENT WILL THEN RELAX THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MON WITH THESE NW WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT ON MON AFTERNOON AND MON NIGHT. GUIDANCE HANGS ON TO THIS WEAKENING TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF THROUGH TUE EVENING...BUT ONLY ACCOMPANIED A 5-10 KT WIND SHIFT. A SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE OVER THE NE GULF TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH ANTICYCLONIC 5-10 KT FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF...EXCEPT NE 10-15 KT WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON TUE AND WED EVENINGS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. ATLC RIDGING N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FOR NE-E MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS THIS MORNING. NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS THIS MORNING...WHILE FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH MID MORNING TODAY. THE ATLC RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN. NE WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED TO 25-30 KT TONIGHT ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA...WITH FRESH-STRONG NE-E FLOW CARIBBEAN ELSEWHERE S OF 16N BETWEEN 70-83W. MODERATE TRADES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE NOCTURNALLY AFFECTED AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL SHRINK TO WITHIN 240 NM OF THE COAST ON MON NIGHT...WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST ON TUE NIGHT...AND ONLY WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST ON WED AND THU NIGHTS. A RIDGE WILL BUILD SE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN ON TUE NIGHT-WED WITH 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. MODERATE E TRADES WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE DURING MID WEEK...EXCEPT FRESH E TRADES EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF THE WINDWARDS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. REMNANTS OF A BROAD STATIONARY FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM 23N55W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT N THIS EVENING. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA TO PORT CANAVERAL WITH FRESH EASTERLIES EXPECTED S OF THE RIDGE AXIS THROUGH EARLY MORNING...EXCEPT FOR A NARROW SWATH OF STRONG EASTERLIES ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND ACROSS THE ATLC APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AS WELL. S- SW 15-20 KT FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NW WATERS N OF THE RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE GA COAST THAT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW N OF 29N E OF THE FRONT TO 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT REACHES FROM 31N60W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE NW FLOW WITHIN 360 NM BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALSO QUICKLY INCREASE TO 20-25 KT N OF 28N TONIGHT...WITH THESE CONDITIONS SHIFTING E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS BETWEEN 65-55W ON MON. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON TUE-WED. A POST-FRONTAL RIDGE WILL BUILD E OFF THE FL COAST ALONG 28-29N WITH AN EMBEDDED HIGH PRES CENTER DEVELOPING NEAR 30N79W LATE MON...THEN SHIFTING SE TO OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS ON TUE...SHIFTING E TO NEAR 25N61W ON WED AS THE RIDGE RE- ORIENTATES FROM E TO W ALONG 25N ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO SWEEP E ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.