000 AGXX40 KNHC 141806 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 206 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR 23N90W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 23N90W TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE DATA OVER THE EASTERN GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. A 1019 MB HIGH PRES OVER THE NW GULF WILL DISSIPATE AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E OF THE AREA ON SUN WHILE THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE SW GULF. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BUILDING RIDGE AND THE TROUGH WILL TIGHTEN BRINGING AND INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS ZONES GMZ017 AND GMZ023 AND WEST OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT AND SUN. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NW TO N WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE W OF THE TROUGH WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 9-10 FT ACROSS THE SW GULF. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGHOUT THE DAY OF MON WITH THESE NW WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT MON AFTERNOON AND 10-15 KT ON MON NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. BUOY 42058 IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS REPORTING SEAS TO 10 FT WHILE AN ALTIMETER PASS OVER THE SAME AREA INDICATED SEAS AROUND 12 FT S OF 15N. ATLC RIDGING N OF THE REGION COMBINED WITH LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH WINDS AT OR NEAR GALE FORCE ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH EARLY SUN. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH EARLY SUN. FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS WILL DIMINISH SOME LATE THIS WEEKEND...WITH MODERATE TRADE WINDS EXPECTED OVER MOST AREAS THROUGH MID WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 23N65W TO THE NW BAHAMAS. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 23N ON SUN. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE NOTED PER ASCAT PASSES WITHIN 120-150 NM N OF THE FRONT MAINLY BETWEEN 55W AND 73W. SIMILAR WINDS ARE NEAR THE APPROACH OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 1031 MB HIGH PRES FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING A SECOND COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR N WATERS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 12 FT OVER THE FAR NE WATERS ON MON. THIS SECOND FRONT WILL REACH FROM 30N65W TO THE NW BAHAMAS ON SUN NIGHT...EXTEND FROM 25N65W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ON MON... THEN WASH OUT ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON TUE AND WED. A THIRD AND WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH WATERS ON WED. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 8 FT ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONT. BETWEEN FRONTS...HIGH PRES WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO SUN. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.