000 AGXX40 KNHC 140757 RRA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1239 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 RETRANSMIT MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM- HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE IT HAS ALREADY STALLED. EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE COLD FRONT TO SOON STALL WHILE A SURFACE HIGH HIGH OVER THE NW GULF LOSES IDENTITY IN A RIDGE BUILDING E ACROSS THE NW WATERS. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT W WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT BECOMING A NW-SE ORIENTATED LOW LEVEL TROUGH FROM 25N96W TO 18N93W. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TROUGH WITH NW-N 20-25 KT WINDS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT SW OF THE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL GULF WATERS. GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MORE AGGRESSIVE THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS..AND NOW SUGGESTS THE GRADIENT WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN ON SUN INCREASING THE NW FLOW TO 20-30 KT SW OF THE TROUGH WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT BY SUN EVENING. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGHOUT THE DAY OF MON WITH THESE NW WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15- 20 KT MON AFTERNOON AND 10-15 KT ON MON NIGHT. GUIDANCE THEN HANGS ON TO A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF THROUGH MID WEEK BY ONLY ACCOMPANIED A 5-10 KT WIND SHIFT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM- HIGH CONFIDENCE. ATLC RIDGING N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH NE-E WINDS AT OR NEAR GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH LATE SUN MORNING. NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. EASTERLY TRADES WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF NORTHERLY 20-25 KT FLOW IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON MON EVENING THROUGH TUE EVENING. FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH LATE SUN THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM THE N OF MON WITH MODERATE TRADES EXPECTED ON TUE- WED. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A BROAD COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM 26N55W TO THE NW BAHAMAS WILL SOON STALL WITH THE WEAKENING REMNANTS OF THIS BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO LIFT N ON SUN. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA TO PORT CANAVERAL. MOSTLY FRESH EASTERLIES EXPECTED TODAY S OF THE RIDGE AXIS...EXCEPT STRONG EASTERLIES ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE ATLC APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FAR NW WATERS N OF THE RIDGE HAS INCREASED TO 15-20 KT AND WILL CONTINUE TO CLOCK TO THE SW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF THE GA COAST TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT SW 15-20 KT N OF 29N E OF THE FRONT ON SUN...THEN A REINFORCING SURGE WILL INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW E OF THE FRONT TO 20-25 KT SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT REACHES FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE NW FLOW WITHIN 360 NM BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL ALSO QUICKLY INCREASE TO 20-25 KT N OF 28N ON SUN NIGHT...WITH THESE CONDITIONS SHIFTING E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS BETWEEN 65-55W ON MON-TUE AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. A POST- FRONTAL RIDGE WILL BUILD E OFF THE FL COAST ALONG 28-29N WITH AN EMBEDDED HIGH PRES CENTER DEVELOPING NEAR 29N80W ON TUE EVENING...THEN SHIFTING E TO OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS ON WED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO SUN. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.