000 AGXX40 KNHC 131803 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 203 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND EXTENDS FROM SOUTH- CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CURRENTLY...A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 27N TO NEAR 87W. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS. FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS ARE NOTED PER SURFACE AND SCATTEROMETER DATA AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 25N WHILE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1018 MB BEHIND THE FRONT LOCATED NEAR 24N95W IS PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS. SEAS ARE GENERALLY UNDER 7 FT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND 2-4 FT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. IT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TODAY AND BECOME STATIONARY TONIGHT EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY SAT MORNING. THEN...THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME DIFFUSE ON SUN BUT A FRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE SW GULF FROM SUN TO TUE. AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED W OF TROUGH AND MAINLY ACROSS ZONES GMZ017 AND GMZ023 ON SUN. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT BY LATE SUN. HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE SE CONUS IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS LATE MON INTO TUE PRODUCING MAINLY A MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY FLOW. FRESH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE FAR SE WATERS WITH SEAS OF 4-5 FT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A GALE WARNING HAS REMAINED IN EFFECT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FOR AROUND A COUPLE OF WEEKS. THIS IS PROBABLY THE LONGEST EVENT TO OCCUR NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA IN SEVERAL YEARS. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH ABNORMALLY DEEP LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH NE TO E WINDS AT OR NEAR GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 0600-1200 UTC THROUGH SUN MORNING. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE GALE FORCE WINDS WHILE AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEA HEIGHTS OF AROUND 12 FT IN THE SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE...25-30 KT...ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SW N ATLC. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH SEAS TO AROUND 10 FT NEAR NE JAMAICA BASED ON AN ALTIMETER PASS. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST AT LEAST 24 HOURS MORE. FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH SUN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 27N65W TO NE FLORIDA. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS N OF FRONT W OF 72W WITH SEAS TO 10 FT BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED S OF 27N W OF 73W DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A 1037 MB HIGH PRES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES S REACHING FROM 23N65W TO THE NW BAHAMAS ON SAT...THEN DISSIPATE ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 23N ON SUN. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH SAT MORNING. A SECOND AND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO 11-12 FT ACROSS THE N WATERS BY EARLY MON MORNING. THIS SECOND FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE SUN NIGHT...AND FROM 25N65W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ON MON...THEN WASH OUT ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE MON INTO TUE AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND HIGH PRES TAKES CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO SAT NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.