000 AGXX40 KNHC 120908 CCA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 506 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: ECMWF-GFS CONSENSUS COMPLEX PATTERN CONTINUES THIS MORNING AS STRONG S/W HAS LIFTED N INTO COASTAL TX AND LA...LEAVING MEAN MID-UPPER TROF PERSISTING ACROSS MEXICO WHILE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN 87W AND 91W YIELDING DEEP CNVTV CLUSTERS N OF 24N. AT LLVLS...1013 MB SFC LOW NEAR 27N93.5W WELL DEPICTED BY OBS ACROSS THE REGION...AS WELL AS PARTIAL 03-04Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING N-NE WINDS 25 KT ACROSS NW QUAD OF LOW OUT TO 120-150NM...AND NW-N WINDS AROUND 25 KT ACROSS W PORTIONS W OF ASSOCIATED FRONT BETWEEN 22N AND 26.5N. SEAS RUNNING 7-9 FT IN BOTH OF THESE AREAS ATTM. LOOKING AT STLT AND SFC OBS FROM TODAY...LOOKS LIKE WE WERE A BIT TOO FAR E WITH FRONTAL POSITION AND HAVE ADJUSTED...WITH FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY FROM MOBILE BAY TO LOW THEN S TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N94W. A TROF EXTENDS FROM LOW SE THEN S TO OFFSHORE OF NW YUCATAN COAST...WHILE CONVERGENCE BAND HAS BLOSSOMED INTO DEEP CNVTN ALONG ABOUT 90W ACROSS N PORTIONS...AND GFS QPF NOT INDICATING MUCH PRECIP THERE. VERY SIMILAR UPPER SCENARIO TO PLAY OUT NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS ANOTHER S/W WILL LIFT N ACROSS WRN GULF AND LEAVE UPPER TROF TO DIG SW AND BECOME REINVIGORATED BY STRONG NLY FLOW DIVING INTO BACK SIDE OVER THE WEEKEND. SFC LOW TO LIFT N TODAY THEN TURN MORE NNW THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INLAND ACROSS SE TX EARLY EVENING LEAVING FRONT TO MOVE EWD TO ABOUT 91W WITH PRES GRADIENT WEAKENING W OF FRONT...BUT MAINTAINING NNW WINDS NEAR 20 KT ACROSS BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRES TO BUILD OFF OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT BEHIND A FRONT SINKING S INTO W ATLC AND INCREASE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS E GULF E OF FRONT FOR BRIEF PERIOD OF 20 KT TO LOCALLY 25 KT SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE FRONT WEAKENS ALONG 88-89W FRI NIGHT. REMNANTS OF FRONT TO THEN SHIFT SE AND ACROSS NE GULF AND N FL THROUGH SUN WHILE S PORTION OF BOUNDARY RETROGRADES WWD...AND WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING N-S ACROSS ERN MEXICO YIELDS STRENGTHENING NLY FLOW W OF BOUNDARY ACROSS SW PORTIONS AND MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS...WITH OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OFF OF VERACRUZ PRODUCING 25-30 KT SUN-SUN NIGHT...WHILE ECMWF CONTINUES WITH THESE WINDS THROUGH MON LATE. I HAVE AGAIN TRENDED TOWARDS ECMWF SOLUTION AS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE SIMILAR TO THIS SOLUTION. GOES-R IFR PRODUCTS SHOWING HIGH PROBS ACROSS COASTAL WATERS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO FL BIG BEND...WITH SOME BREAKS AND REASONABLY MATCHES PLATFORM OBS ACROSS W AND NW PARTS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: ECMWF-GFS CONSENSUS W ATLC RIDGE HAS WEAKENED PAST 24 HOURS...NARROWED AND SUNK S TO ALONG 29N THIS MORNING AS NEXT FRONT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NW ATLC AND SE THROUGH COASTAL CAROLINAS. SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT PERSISTS BETWEEN 1005 MB LOW ACROSS COLOMBIA AND THIS RIDGE TO MAINTAIN STRONG TRADES ACROSS CENTRAL CARIB BETWEEN 70W AND 80W AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...WITH GALES AGAIN PULSING OFF OF COLOMBIA COAST AND EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 40 KT AND 17 FT NEXT FEW HOURS. BUOY 42058 IN CENTRAL CARIB HAS BEEN HOVERING AROUND 12 FT PAST 24 HOURS AND NOW BACK UP TO 13 FT ATTM. BROAD WEAK LLVL TROF MOVING ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS ATTM AIDING IN REDUCING PRES GRADIENT AND WINDS THERE HAVE DIMINISHED TO NEAR 20 KT OF RECENT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING VERY SLIGHTLY. ATLC RIDGE TO REORGANIZE NEXT FEW DAYS AS FRONT SINKS S INTO SW N ATLC WATERS AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS OFF OF NEW ENGLAND SE INTO REGION. WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH VERY SLIGHTLY LATE FRI THROUGH SAT ACROSS THE BASIN AS HIGH SHIFTS SE INTO NW ATLC BEHIND FRONT...WHICH WILL STALL NEARLY W-E ALONG ABOUT 22N SAT...THEN HIGH SHIFTS E INTO CENTRAL ATLC SUN AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS NW ATLC AND SIN SSE INTO SW N ATLC WATERS SUN EVENING. PRES GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS TO THEN SUBSIDE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY SUN THROUGH TUE AS THIS FRONT MOVES S ACROSS ATLC AND REACHES NE COAST OF HISPANIOLA BY LATE TUE THEN MEANDERS. GALES WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OFF OF COLOMBIAN WATERS NIGHT TIME THROUGH MORNING HOURS MON MORNING...AND DIMINISH TO 25-30 KT EACH AFTERNOON. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: ECMWF-GFS CONSENSUS WEAKENED W ATLC RIDGE HAS SHIFTED S PAST 24 HOURS AND NOW CENTERED ON 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 28.5N67W WITH RIDGE WWD INTO N FL- GA THIS MORNING. MORE SOUTHERN POSITION OF RIDGE AXIS STILL PRODUCING STRONG PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SRN PORTIONS...WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES LIT UP FROM ATLC WATERS OF NE CARIB THROUGH STRAITS OF FL. GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WINDS TO PULSE TO NEAR 30 KT OFF NW COAST OF HAITI EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND SPILL SOMEWHAT INTO WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND MOST LIKELY TONIGHT AS WIND FLOW BACKS MORE NE. SEAS THROUGH THIS SRN CORRIDOR AT 6-9 FT PRESENTLY AND EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 7-10 FT THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX AS HIGH SHIFTS NE INTO CENTRAL ATLC AND RIDGE COLLAPSE ALONG 28N. FRONT TO SINK S INTO N PORTIONS TONIGHT AND FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH SHIFTING SE OFF OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH FRONT SINKING S AND WASHING OUT AS SHEARLINE EARLY SUN ALONG 21-22N. I CONTINUE TO PREFER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THE FOLLOWING FRONT MOVING S INTO N PORTIONS LATE SUN AND GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT REACHES NE COAST OF HISPANIOLA BY LATE TUE THEN MEANDERS...DRIFTS N AND DISSIPATES THROUGH THU.. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO FRI. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.