000 AGXX40 KNHC 100831 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 431 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: ECMWF-GFS CONSENSUS WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY E-SE ACROSS TEXAS COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH BROAD ZONE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING FROM EPAC NE ACROSS MEXICO AND ACROSS BOTH SIDES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN GULF...WITH STRATOFORM PRECIP ALOFT AND EMBEDDED CNVTN ALONG FRONT. GOES-R FOG PRODUCTS VERIFYING WELL ACROSS THE AREA WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CIGS WITHIN 200 NM SE OF TEXAS COAST EXTENDING NNE INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST...WITH LOWEST VSBYS ALONG TEXAS COAST. SELY FLOW 15-20 KT PREVAILS N OF 26N E OF FRONT TO 87W WHERE SEAS ARE NOW 4-7 FT PER OBS. GFS GRADUALLY COMING IN LINE WITH ECMWF IN HANDLING OF COMPLEX DEEP LAYERED SYSTEM TO MOVE E ACROSS THE BASIN REST OF WORK WEEK. UPPER TROUGH DIGGING AND DEEPENING ACROSS MEXICO ATTM AND WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS MEXICO AND SW U.S. AND OVER FAR W GULF THU AFTERNOON WHILE GRADUALLY SHARPENING AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED THU-FRI. THIS EXPECTED TO FUEL DEEP CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR TRW+ ALONG AND E OF SLOW MOVING FRONT DURING THIS TIME. FRONT EXPECTED TO DRIFT E-SE TODAY AND REACH FROM CENTRAL LA COAST TO MID MEXICAN COAST NEAR 22N97.5W THIS EVENING THEN LITTLE EWD PROGRESS ALONG LA COAST WED AS LLVL VORT DEVELOPS ALONG FRONT ACROSS W CENTRAL PORTIONS AND RIDES NWD ALONG FRONT AND INLAND ACROSS LA THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...NLY FLOW WILL INCREASE W OF FRONT ACROSS W CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS...REACHING 25-30 KT ALONG OROGRAPHICALLY PREFERRED AREAS...AND ACROSS W SEMICIRCLE OF LOW...THROUGH THU EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. FRONT HANGS UP ACROSS SE LA TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE THU BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE SLOWLY E...REACHING MOBILE BAY TO ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE SAT MORNING. NEW FRONTAL ZONE AND REINFORCING HIGH PRES WILL APPROACH BASIN FROM NW SAT AND INCREASE PRES GRADIENT BEHIND FRONT ACROSS SW PORTIONS SAT THROUGH SUN BEFORE DIMINISHING SUN NIGHT. WINDS COULD REACH 30 KT AND SEAS 8-10 FT DURING THIS TIME W OF 94W. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA WITH RIDGE WWD INTO CAROLINAS THIS MORNING COMBINING WITH LOW PRES ACROSS COLOMBIA TO MAINTAIN TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF BASIN AND ATLC SIDES OF GREATER ANTILLES. PARTIAL ASCAT PASSES 01-02Z SHOWED W HALF OF GALE AREA OFF OF COLOMBIA EXTENDING N TO NEAR 13.5N AND W TO 76.5W...WITH PEAK SEAS LIKELY AROUND 16 FT. MEANWHILE...STRONG LLVL WIND SURGE HAS MOVED INTO NE PORTIONS OF S AMERICA AND S HALF OF TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS PAST 18 HRS...WHERE NE WINDS REMAIN 20-25 KT WITH ISOLATED SPOTS TO 30 KT...AND SEAS 9-12 FT. BERMUDA HIGH TO DRIFT ENE NEXT 24 HRS AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY WHILE RIDGE REMAINS IN TACT...THEN HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER NE THROUGH WED EVENING BEFORE NEW HIGH PINCHES OFF WITHIN S SINKING RIDGE ALONG 30N...TO MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG FLOW ACROSS MOST OF BASIN E OF 80W...AND THROUGH ATLC PASSAGES INTO CARIB. I CONTINUE TO PREFER ECMWF SOLUTION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SSE INTO ATLC WATERS LATE SUN...WHICH BEGINS TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS REGION STARTING SAT NIGHT. WITH ALL THIS...GALES TO CONTINUETO PULSE EACH NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT BEFORE ENDING SUN MORNING...FINALLY. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS THROUGH SAT THEN ECMWF. W ATLC RIDGE TO DOMINATE THE REGION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS DISCUSSED ABOVE KEEPING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES GOING S OF 24-25N THROUGH THU MORNING BEFORE PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN. AS HIGH SHIFTS ENE WITHIN RIDGE TONIGHT AND PASSES DUE N OF TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...WINDS THERE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT THROUGH WED BEFORE DIMINISHING. GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WINDS PULSING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO 30 KT ACROSS NW COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA AND EXTENDING INTO APPROACH TO WINDWARD PASSAGE...WHERE SEAS EXPECTED 8-10 FT THIS EVENING THROUGH THU MORNING. STRONG ESE FLOW EXPECTED 20-25 KT ALONG N COAST OF CUBA AND THROUGH BAHAMA BANKS THROUGH WED TO KEEP SEAS UP 6-8 FT THERE. NEXT FRONT TO SINK SWD INTO AREA FRI BEFORE STALLING ALONG ABOUT 24N FRI EVENING E PORTIONS. PREFER THE ECMWF SOLUTION BEYOND THIS TIME WITH STRONG FRONT MOVING SE INTO NW PORTIONS SUN NIGHT AND REACHING 31N65W TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA MON MORNING...AND STRONG NW SWELL MOVING INTO ATLC WATERS TUE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO WED. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.