000 AGXX40 KNHC 090801 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 401 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS THROUGH 36 HR THEN ECMWF MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E TO SE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRES HAS SHIFTED E INTO W ATLC PAST 24 HOURS...AND WARM FRONT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS N PORTIONS ALONG ABOUT 28N. MEXICAN COASTAL TROUGH PERSISTS ALONG SW COASTAL WATERS...WHILE EVENING THERMAL TROUGH IS SHIFTING WWD OFF YUCATAN PENINSULA AND OVER OPEN WATERS. COASTAL TROUGH IS ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS SE TEXAS COAST WITH SFC OBS SUGGESTING LOW NEAR CRP. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 36 HRS WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING SLOWLY N AND COASTAL TROUGH SHIFTING NW AND INLAND...AS ATLC RIDGE OPENS UP INTO E TWO-THIRDS OF GULF AND SE FLOW FRESHENS TONIGHT THOUGH TUE MORNING. MODELS THEN DIVERGE SOME IN HANDLING OF COLD FRONT MOVING INTO BASIN...ALTHOUGH ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT RECENT DAYS...AND AM USING ECMWF SOLUTION ATTM. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SHIFT SE INTO TX-LA COASTAL WATERS TUE MORNING AND CONTINUE EWD BEFORE STALLING WED FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR VERACRUZ. LOW CENTER FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND RIDE NWD ALONG FRONT AND INTO SE LOUISIANA EARLY THU...WITH FRONT THEN SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD FRI AND SAT WHILE WEAKENING...REACHING FL BIG BEND TO ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE SAT MORNING. ECMWF SUGGEST CHANCE FOR 20-25 KT WIND TO SPILL DOWN MEXICAN COAST TUE NIGHT-WED THEN FILLING IN BEHIND FRONT WED AFTERNOON...WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT. UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS MEXICO AND SHIFTING EWD WILL COMBINE WITH ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS AND TROPICAL MOISTURE DRAWN FROM EPAC TO PRODUCE ACTIVE WEATHER ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT AS IT SHIFT INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS THROUGH THU. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS ATLC RIDGE NOW CENTERED ACROSS SW N ATLC NEAR 31.5N70W...AND WILL SHIFT E TO ALONG 60W AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH WED MORNING TO MAINTAIN TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS MOST OF BASIN E OF 85W. 01-02Z ASCAT PASSES SHOWED STRONG TRADES ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS WITH SOLID 25+ KT WINDS EXTENDING N TO 16N...AND AREA OF 20-25 FROM THERE N TO BARAHONA PENINSULA OF DR. ALSO DEPICTED WERE GALES IN WRN GULF OF VENEZUELA...WHILE PASSES MISSED MAX WIND ZONE OFF OF CENTRAL COLOMBIA. BUOY 42058 BACK UP TO 11 FT ATTM AND INDICATIVE OF BROAD AREA OF STRONG TRADES DOMINATING CENTRAL CARIB. MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST ANOMALOUSLY LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA... FLUCTUATING 1002-1004 NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH APPEARS TO BE AIDING THE PERSISTENT GALES OFF OF COLOMBIA. TUTT INDUCED LLVL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS ERN CARIB ALONG 62W ATTM...WITH STRONG NE TO E TRADES TO FILL IN ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS BEHIND IT TODAY...WITH SEAS BUILDING 8-11 FT BY TUE. AS HIGH ACROSS ATLC STRENGTHENS TUE AND WED STRONG TRADES TO EXPAND N TO SRN COASTAL WATERS OF GREATER ANTILLES...AND THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE...WHICH WILL INCREASE TO 25-30 KT. HIGH TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT FARTHER NE LATE WED AND THU WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKING S INTO W ATLC WATERS...AND HIGH BUILDING ACROSS NW ATLC SWD TO MAINTAIN STRONG GRADIENT CENTRAL PORTIONS. GALES THUS TO GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD...WITH POSSIBLE DIURNAL WEAKENING EACH LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS THROUGH SAT WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS FROM NEAR 28N65W THROUGH NW BAHAMAS AND ACROSS S FLORIDA...WHILE 1026 HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 31.5N70W. W END OF FRONT HAS TRANSITIONED TO SHEAR LINE WITH POCKETS OF 20 KT WINDS STILL OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM N OF BOUNDARY W OF 72W. AS DISCUSSED ABOVE...HIGH TO SHIFT SLOWLY E NEXT 48 HOURS AND STRENGTHEN...WITH FRONTAL REMNANTS LIFTING GRADUALLY NWD. STRONG PRES GRADIENT TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THU ACROSS SRN WATERS FROM NE CARIB TO SRN BAHAMAS BANKS...WITH PROLONGED E TO SE FETCH WILL PRODUCE BUILDING SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS N OF HISPANIOLA AND INTO WINDWARD PASSAGE FORECAST TO REACH 25-30 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING 8-10 FT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUE. OTHERWISE...ATLC RIDGE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS DIVERGING IN FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING S-SE INTO NW PORTIONS SUN...AND ATTM PREFER THE ECMWF...RESULTING IN QUICKLY WEAKENING GRADIENT WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS SAT AND SUN. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TUE. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.