000 AGXX40 KNHC 070845 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 345 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS S PORTIONS HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT S OVERNIGHT...NOW EXTENDING FROM NEAR PALM BEACH SW ACROSS SE PORTIONS TO 1019 MB LOW NEAR 19N93W. N-NE WIND APPEARS TO BE BRIDGING OVER FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SE GULF AND YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH THE COLD AIR STILL WELL TO THE N AND NE. RECENT SCAT PASSES STILL SHOWED GALES OCCURRING OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ IN SW GULF AT 04Z...BUT ARE ASSUMED TO HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALES AFTER 06Z...WITH AREA PEMEX BUOYS SHOWING A SLOW DECREASING TREND IN WINDS AND SEAS THERE. PEAK SEAS STILL HOLDING AROUND 15 FT SW PORTIONS PER BUOY BMO...WHILE PERSISTING N TO NE FETCH ACROSS THE SW QUARTER STILL GENERATING LARGE SEAS 10 FT AND GREATER. MODELS SHOW FRONT DRIFTING SLOWLY S ACROSS REMAINDER OF FL PENINSULA AND REACHING STRAITS AND FAR SE PORTIONS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE AND ILL DEFINED. FRONTAL REMNANTS TO DRIFT N TONIGHT THROUGH MON AND INTO NW PORTIONS...WHERE NEW FRONT WILL DEVELOP...SHIFT SLIGHTLY SE AND MEANDER W AND W CENTRAL PORTIONS THROUGH FRI. N TO S TROUGHING AHEAD OF BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E LATE TUE THROUGH FRI AND ALLOW FOR NLY FLOW AND CAA W OF 94W LATE TUE THROUGH THU...WITH POTENTIAL FOR OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE TO ENHANCE WINDS ALONG VERACRUZ COAST TO 30 KT. OTHERWISE...WINDS 15-25 KT EXPECTED. SHARP UPPER TROUGH PATTERN DIGGING INTO MEXICO DURING THIS TIME...AND HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN ECMWF SOLUTION AND THUS HAVE LEANED MORE HEAVILY TO ECMWF BEYOND TUE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS PERSISTENT LOW PRES ACROSS COLOMBIA CONTINUES TO COMBINE WITH MIGRATORY RIDGING ACROSS ATLC FOR ONGOING GALES OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA...PULSING TO GALES DURING NOCTURNAL MAX...AT THE LEAST. RECENT ASCAT PASSES SHOWED BROAD AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS COVERING MUCH OF CENTRAL PORTIONS TO ALMOST 16N AND IS REFLECTED BY BUOY 42058 HOLDING AT 10 FT PAST SEVERAL HOURS. 0545Z ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED SEAS TO 10 FT AS FAR E AS 14.5N69W. HIGH PRES ACROSS SE U.S. WILL SHIFT E INTO W ATLC THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND PASS DUE N OF COLOMBIA TO FURTHER TIGHTEN PRES GRADIENT AND YIELD GALES TO 40 KT TONIGHT AND LIKELY AGAIN SUN NIGHT. HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EWD THROUGH THE WEEK...AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN...WITH NARROW RIDGE ALONG 29-30N BY LATE WED GIVING WAY TO WEAK FRONT AND NEW HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS REGION FROM THE N AND ACTING TO REINFORCE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS S CENTRAL PORTIONS AGAIN. THUS THE COLOMBIAN GALE MAY CONTINUE...AT THE LEAST DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. MEANWHILE...LONG ENE FETCH ACROSS ATLC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG ENE TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC...WITH SEAS 8-11 FT IN MIXED ENE TRADE WIND SWELL AND NW SWELL. A LLVL WIND SURGE ACCOMPANIES THE TUTT LOW REFLECTION ALONG 47W ATTM AND WILL MOVE WWD AND THROUGH THESE WATERS NEXT 36-48 HOURS TO REINFORCE THE WIND SURGE WITH ANOTHER PULSE OF ENE WIND SWELL. GFS HAS NOT QUITE CAPTURED CURRENT STRENGTH OF WINDS ACROSS THESE WATERS AND HAVE USED ECWAVE THROUGHOUT PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR LOW WW3 BIAS IN SWELL. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SE ACROSS NW PORTIONS ATTM...CURRENTLY FROM 31N70W TO JUST S OF PBI...WITH NLY FLOW BRIDGING OVER FRONT AND SPILLING ACROSS NW BAHAMAS AND DOWN SE COAST OF FL TO THE UPPER KEYS. FRESH TO STRONG NLY FLOW ACROSS FAR NW PORTIONS AND NEARBY OFFSHORE WATERS S OF 32N HAS GENERATED NLY SWELL THAT WILL MOVE W OF BAHAMAS TODAY AND AFFECT FAR SE FL COASTAL WATERS. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS N PORTIONS AND DRAG SE ACROSS FAR NW BAHAMAS AND SE FL TODAY BEFORE BECOMING STRUNG OUT NEARLY E TO W ALONG 27N BY 48 HOURS...THEN DRIFT N THROUGH WED AS HIGH SHIFT FROM SE U.S. ENE ACROSS ATLC AND INTO E CENTRAL ATLC BY WED. SUFFICIENT RIDGING DURING THIS TIME AND UNUSUALLY PERSISTENT LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH COLOMBIAN LOW WILL PRODUCE STRONG TRADES S OF 22N STARTING SUN NIGHT...AND COULD REACH 25-30 KT IN ENTRANCE TO WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGHOUT MOST OF WEEK...WHERE SEAS WILL LIKELY REACH 7-9 FT AND LOCALLY HIGHER. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO SUN NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO THU. .AMZ033...CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W INCLUDING VENEZUELA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.