000 AGXX40 KNHC 260759 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 259 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT REACHES FROM THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA SW TOWARD THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE FRONT IS CONNECTED TO A DEEP LOW PRES AREA THAT FORMED OVER THE NW GULF YESTERDAY AND SHIFTED E ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND N FLORIDA...AND IS NOW OVER THE COAST OF GEORGIA. STRONG WINDS WERE NOTED OVER THE NE GULF THIS PAST EVENING NEAR THE LOW PRES...ALONG WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE STILL ACTIVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR TAMPA. A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS TO 11 FT NEAR 27N87W...INDICATIVE OF 8 TO 11 FT SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE NE GULF CURRENTLY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRES. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SE TODAY...REACHING FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN...THEN STALL ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE SATURDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND DISSIPATING SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULTING IN STRONG E WINDS OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN GULF AND SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN THE NW GULF. WINDS DIMINISH SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST...EXCEPT FOR RESIDUAL FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS OVER THE NE GULF AND STRONG E WINDS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. LIGHT TO MODERATE RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ON MONDAY. NO MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN MODEL OUTPUT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO MINIMAL GALE WARNING FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS N OF THE AREA. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL ALLOW TRADES TO INCREASE FROM THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WEAKENS AND STRONGER RIDGING BUILDS FARTHER WEST OVER THE CAROLINAS...WHICH IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE S CENTRAL...SW AND NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SHIP OBSERVATION CONFIRMED GALES ARE ONGOING OVER THE AREA OFF NE FLORIDA THIS MORNING...AHEAD OF DEEP LOW PRES AREA MOVING NE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION THROUGH FLORIDA. THE SOUTHWESTERLY GALES WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING OVER THE WATERS N OF 29N W OF 75W WITH SEAS REACHING 10 TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE STRONG S TO SW WINDS WILL ALSO BE ACTIVE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 27N W OF 68W THROUGH THIS MORNING AS WELL. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD REACHING FROM 31N75W TO NEAR W PALM BEACH FLORIDA BY THIS EVENING...FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY FRI EVENING...STALL FROM 29N65W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SATURDAY...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE SUNDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN STRONG EASTERLY WINDS SAT AND SUN...DIMINISHING MON AS THE HIGH WEAKENS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO MON. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING TODAY. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.