000 AGXX40 KNHC 251913 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 213 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A LOW PRES DEVELOPED THIS MORNING OVER THE NW PART OF THE GULF. AT 25/1800 UTC...THE LOW PRES OF 1005 MB IS NEAR SE LOUISIANA. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 20N96W. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWS MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A QUICK SURGE OF COLD AIR OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATERS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE NOTED PER SURFACE DATA AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 25N. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND HIGHER GUSTS COULD OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE OF THE BASIN THIS EVENING WHILE DEEPENING. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND BRIEFLY STALL FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY EARLY FRI...THEN REACH WESTERN CUBA AND THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN LATER ON FRI BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE SE OF AREA THROUGH SAT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD N OF THE AREA THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW EXPECTED SUN AND SUN NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN MODEL OUTPUT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS N OF THE AREA. CURRENTLY...SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW NE TO E WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE THERE. AN EARLIER ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS TO 12 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. ELSEWHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE BASIN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH LATE TODAY...THEN START TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N66W TO 28N79W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ARE OBSERVED BEHIND THE FRONT PER THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS. SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...A RAPIDSCAT SHOWED WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT IT APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY NOTED N OF 29N E OF FRONT TO NEAR 61W. THE FRONT WILL LIFT N OF THE AREA AHEAD OF ANOTHER AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SECOND LOW WILL MOVE NE REACHING THE WATERS JUST OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE SE SIDE OF THE LOW PRES CAN BE EXPECTED N OF 30N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W TONIGHT AND EARLY THU. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FORECAST WATERS LATE TONIGHT REACHING FROM 31N73W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA EARLY ON FRI AND FROM 31N66W TO WESTERN CUBA FRI NIGHT...THEN STALL AND LIFT N SAT THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE SUN. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO FRI. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO MON. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO THU. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING THU. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.