000 AGXX40 KNHC 250758 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 258 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA TO THE FAR SW GULF WILL MEANDER NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ASSOCIATED LOW PRES MAY BE STARTING TO FORM OFF THE COAST OF NE MEXICO CURRENTLY. COASTAL AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE PRESSURE IS LOWERING IN THIS AREA CURRENTLY WITH WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING BECOMING ORGANIZED...SUGGESTING THE LOW PRES IS FORMING AS ANTICIPATED. SHORT RANGE MODEL OUTPUT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NE TO OFF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN TOWARD PANAMA CITY FLORIDA THIS EVENING. SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE THIS EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF...WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW PRES AS IT SHIFTS NE OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE...EVENTUALLY STALLING FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY LATE FRI AS THE SUPPORTING FLOW BECOMES MORE SW. MEANWHILE STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...DIMINISHING AND VEER MORE SE BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS EAST. NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN MODEL OUTPUT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS NEAR CARTAGENA COLOMBIA INDICATED NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS...INDICATIVE OF WINDS PULSING TO GALE FORCE FARTHER EAST OFF BARRANQUILLA AND SANTA MARTA OVERNIGHT...BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE LATER IN THE MORNING. ELSEWHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE BASIN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH LATE TODAY...THEN START TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL ALSO SUPPORT PULSES TO GALE FORCE EACH NIGHT OFF COLOMBIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS PUSHED OFF THE COAST AND IS SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES NEAR 33N72W. RECENT BUOY REPORTS AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE SW WINDS REACHED GALE FORCE NEAR 31N72W RECENTLY ON THE SE SIDE OF THE LOW PRES. THESE GALES WERE BRIEF AND MORE RECENT DATA SUGGESTS WINDS ARE 25 TO 30 KT N OF 30N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. ASSOCIATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE...COVERING THE WATERS N OF 29N E OF 70W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N73W TO NEAR ST AUGUSTINE FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIFT N OF THE AREA AHEAD OF ANOTHER AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SECOND LOW WILL SHIFT FROM THE NE GULF ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO 31N77W TONIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SW GALES AGAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU AHEAD OF THIS SECOND LOW...OVER THE AREA N OF 30N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. THERE REMAINS SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN POSITION AND STRENGTH WITH REGARD TO THE LOW PRES...ALTHOUGH WITH MORE AGREEMENT THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE ECMWF REMAINS A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE STRONGER UKMET AND WEAKER AND FASTER GFS. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO ENVELOP THE REGION N OF 27N THROUGH LATE THU AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING TRAILING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N75W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY EARLY FRI...BEFORE STALLING AND MEANDERING NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHER BAHAMAS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE SUNDAY. HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE CAROLINA COAST WILL SUPPORT STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. GALE WARNING TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO THU. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING THU EARLY THU. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.