000 AGXX40 KNHC 241914 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 214 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A WEAK 1018 MB LOW PRES NEAR 29N84W TO A SECOND WEAK LOW PRES NEAR 25N91W TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. COASTAL OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW FUNNELING ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTLINE W OF THE FRONT AND MAINLY S OF 26N WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN ALONG 26N TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION AS A NEW LOW PRES DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NW GULF AND MOVES NE OF THE GULF BY WED NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SE AND REACH FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE EAST BAY OF CAMPECHE THU MORNING THEN STALL FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA FRI...BEFORE LIFTING N AND BECOMING DIFFUSE SAT. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY N OF 25N... WITH BUILDING SEAS UP TO 10 FT LATE WED AND WED NIGHT. EXPECT ALSO FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. BY FRI...WEAK HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE REINFORCED BY A STRONGER HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF UNITED STATES. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS FRI AND SAT. CURRENTLY...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND RAISING SEAS OF 6-9 FT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL WATERS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. GALE FORCE WINDS WERE NOTED NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THIS MORNING BY SCATTEROMETER DATA AND A PAIR OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS. WINDS HAVE NOW DIMINISHED TO 25-30 KT. LIGHT TO MODERATE NE WINDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE BLOWING ELSEWHERE. WINDS OFF COLOMBIA WILL PULSE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE AGAIN TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT PREVAILED N OF THE AREA HAS STARTED TO RETREAT TO THE SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON WED AND WED NIGHT REACHING 20-25 KT W OF 85W... INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THIS WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STALLING COLD FRONT OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. TRADES ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL INCREASE AGAIN WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT AS THE RIDGE BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED N OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF WINDS PULSING TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE OFF COLOMBIA FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR MODERATE EASTERLIES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN MODEL OUTPUT. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...PERSISTENT STRONG TRADES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC HAS PROMOTED EASTERLY SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS TO 9 FT IN THE WATERS E OF THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS TO 55W. SEAS WILL SLIGHTLY SUBSIDE ON WED TO 6-7 FT BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS N OF AREA. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS UP TO 10 FT JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 27N IS SHIFTING SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N67W TO 29N75W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO A WEAK LOW PRES LOCATED IN THE NE PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS THE LOW PRES IN THE GULF MOVES NE ACROSS N FLORIDA INTO THE SW N ATLANTIC LATER TODAY. THE LOW PRES WILL BE N OF AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BUT WILL PRODUCE SW TO W WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE ACROSS THE N WATERS WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT THROUGH AT LEAST WED MORNING. ANOTHER LOW PRES AREA WILL MOVE ACROSS N FLORIDA AND OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST THROUGH WED NIGHT. SW WINDS TO GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE LOW PRES AND ACROSS PARTS OF ZONES AMZ111 AND AMZ113 WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. CURRENTLY...THE SREF PROBABILITIES OF GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 50-60 PERCENT WHILE THE GEFS PROBABILITIES REACH 40-50 PERCENT. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE OF THE AREA THROUGH THU WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE FRI BEFORE STALLING THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SAT. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE CAROLINA COAST BEHIND THE FRONT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING WED NIGHT INTO THU. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING THU. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.