000 AGXX40 KNHC 240751 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 251 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS OUTPUT FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK 1019 MB LOW PRES HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 25N93W ALONG A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT REACHING FROM NEAR TAMPA TO THE LOW PRES TO THE FAR SW GULF NEAR 18N94W. COASTAL OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW FUNNELING ALONG THE TEXAS AND MEXICAN COASTLINE W OF THE FRONT. THE LOW PRES WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TODAY AND THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY...BEFORE RETROGRADING NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SHARP MID/UPPER IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW PRES WILL START TO FORM OVER THE WESTERN GULF EARLY WED AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...DEEPENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE NE GULF LATE WED. GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE POSITION...TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW...WITH LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER. EXPECT SW WINDS 25 TO 30 KT ON THE SE QUADRANT OF THE LOW ACROSS THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF THROUGH LATE WED WITH SEAS TO 11 FT...DIMINISHING ACROSS THE GULF WED NIGHT AS THE LOW PRES SHIFTS NE OF THE AREA ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE TRAILING FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS SAGGING INTO THE SE GULF...REACHING FROM S FLORIDA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY EARLY FRI. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH STATES THROUGH FRI...ALLOWING NE TO E WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE BASIN LATE FRI THROUGH SAT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AT LEAST 8 FT OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH SE FLOW...WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER E WINDS LINGERING OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. USED NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SURFACE RIDGE THAT PREVAILED N OF THE AREA HAS STARTED TO RETREAT TO THE SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT LIGHT TO MODERATE NE WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION REMAINS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE RECENT SATELLITE DERIVED DATA INDICATED NEAR GALE CONDITIONS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT. PERSISTENT STRONG TRADES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC HAS PROMOTED EASTERLY SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS TO 9 FT IN THE WATERS E OF THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS TO 55W. TRADES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WILL INCREASE STARTING LATE WED AS THE RIDGE BECOMES RE- ESTABLISHED N OF THE AREA AGAIN. THIS WILL SPREAD WESTWARD ALLOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF WINDS PULSING TO GALE FORCE OFF COLOMBIA FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR MODERATE EASTERLIES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN MODEL OUTPUT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 27N IS SHIFTING SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT REACHING FROM 31N72W TO NEAR MELBOURNE FLORIDA. THE FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS THIS MORNING BEFORE STALLING AND LIFTING NORTHWARD AS WEAK LOW PRES FORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY NEAR 31N78W AND LIFTS NE OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE AND ALLOWING 20 TO 25 KT WESTERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS N OF 28N E OF 78W LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH IN THIS AREA THROUGH WED BUT ONLY TEMPORARILY AHEAD OF ANOTHER DEEPENING LOW PRES CENTER IN THE NE GULF. THE LATEST ECMWF MATCHES BOTH GFS AND EC ENSEMBLE MEANS AND IS A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND SLOWER UKMET AND THE WEAKER AND FASTER OPERATIONAL GFS. ECMWF WINDS OUTPUT WAS BLENDED INTO THE REGION N OF THE BAHAMAS W OF 65W WED NIGHT AND THU. SW WINDS TO GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED N OF 30N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU. STRONG SW WINDS WILL ENVELOPE MOST OF THE AREA N OF 27N THU WITH SEAS 8 TO 13 FT...DIMINISHING THROUGH EARLY FRI AS THE LOW SHIFTS NE OF THE AREA. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD...REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY LATE FRI. THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SATURDAY AND BECOMES DIFFUSE SUNDAY. MEANWHILE HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE CAROLINA COAST WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY THIS MORNING. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111 AND AMZ113...N OF 30N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.