000 AGXX40 KNHC 221849 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 149 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS OUTPUT FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE NW GULF WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE SE WINDS PREVAILING OVER THE GULF WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE WESTERN WATERS AN 3-5 FT OVER THE EASTERN WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO LATE MON NIGHT BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED N OF THE FRONT OVER THE NW WATERS MON. A SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS TUE NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL REACH FROM N FLORIDA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO WED NIGHT AND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THU NIGHT. A STRONGER PUSH OF NORTHERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WINDS REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE LATE WED OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. USED NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS N OF THE AREA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT THE GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EARLIER HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WHILE MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE IN THE 11-14 FT RANGE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...7-10 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...5-7 FT OVER THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 9-11 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE RIDGE N OF THE AREA WILL RETREAT EASTWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH MIDWEEK. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK N OF THE AREA. FOR THE TROPICAL N ATLC...SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER WILL GENERALLY PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH TUE THEN BLENDED GFS WITH ECMWF. USED NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE...THEN MED CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS...5-7 FT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS...AND 1-3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARD ENABLING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS MON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH TUE. A SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS WED EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE STRONGER WITH WINDS REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT WED NIGHT INTO THU. THERE ARE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS. THE GFS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE DEPICTING GALE FORCE WINDS WHILE THE REMAINING MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE. HAVE FAVORED A BLEND OF THE GFS WITH THE LESS AGGRESSIVE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR NOW...KEEPING WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE WED NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO MON. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.