000 AGXX40 KNHC 220747 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 247 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS OUTPUT FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS ARE DIMINISHING THIS MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THROUGH TEXAS. OBSERVATIONS FROM COASTAL STATIONS IN SE TEXAS AND AMONG PLATFORMS OFFSHORE INDICATE VISIBILITIES ARE DROPPING TO 3 TO 5 FT IN FOG WITH LOWER VISIBILITIES REPORT FARTHER SOUTH NEAR VERACRUZ. THIS IS SO FAR A LITTLE LESS THAN ADVERTISED BY THE SREF...BUT APPEARS TO BE FORMING. THE FOG WILL PERSIST ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SUPPORTING UPPER FLOW IS TRENDING MORE ZONAL...AND AS A RESULT THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF LATER TODAY...BUT SLOW AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY. THE PATTERN BECOMES COMPLEX THROUGH MID WEEK AS STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE SW UNITED STATES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUE AND WED. THIS WILL BRING A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLDER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. AT THE SAME TIME...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATED A LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE TUE AND WED...THEN SHIFT NE AND BRING THE COLDER AIR AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. THE ECMWF REMAINS A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE UKMET AND MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS WITH REGARD TO THE LOW DEVELOPMENT LATE WED AND THU. THE SUPPORTING UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD...ALLOWING THE FRONT TO SLOW AND EVENTUALLY STALL OVER THE FAR SE GULF THROUGH LATE FRI. MODERATE EAST WINDS WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. USED NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASSES INDICATE WINDS TO 30 KT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS WILL LIKELY PULSE BRIEFLY TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE THIS MORNING WITH ADDED OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE EFFECTS...THEN DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF WINDS PULSING TO GALE FORCE OFF COLOMBIA TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL LESSEN THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF THE AREA SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE SCATTEROMETER ALSO INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT NE WINDS PUSHING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE NORTH COAST OF JAMAICA. ELSEWHERE GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ARE NOTED. BUOY 42058 NEAR 15N75W INDICATES SEAS TO 8 FT...BUT LIKELY REACHING 12 TO 13 FT OFF COLOMBIA. 3 TO 6 FT PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. LOOKING AHEAD THE STRONG TRADES RECOVER STARTING BY THU OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS THE RIDGE BUILDS N OF THE AREA. FOR THE TROPICAL N ATLC...BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA INDICATE FRESH TRADES CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA. A RECENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASS INDICATED SEAS 8 TO 10 FT LIKELY IN PRIMARILY E SWELL MIXED WITH A SECONDARY NW COMPONENT. THE WINDS DIMINISH TODAY AS THE RIDGE N OF THE AREA WEAKENS...BUT THE SWELL 8 FT OR GREATER WILL GENERALLY PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. THE TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY THU AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH BUILDS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. USED NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON NIGHT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TUE THROUGH THU NIGHT. A PAIR OF RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT SE WINDS N OF 30N W OF 77W. BUOYS EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WERE SHOWING SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN A STREAM OF PERSISTENT STRONG NE TO E WINDS. THIS IS ABOUT 2 FT ABOVE MWW3 GUIDANCE BUT CLOSE TO ECWAVE AND UKMET GUIDANCE. THE PLUME OF STRONG NE WINDS AND ACCOMPANYING SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN AREAL EXTENT FROM NW TO SE THROUGH LATE TODAY AS THE SUPPORTING RIDGE N OF THE AREA SHIFTS EASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE SE GEORGIA COAST OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW MOVING...REACHING ONLY FROM 31N74W TO 29N81W BY LATE MON...BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW AND SEAS TO 9 FT. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND STALL FROM 31N63W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY EARLY TUE. THE WINDS N OF THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH BY SEA 8 TO 11 FT WILL PERSIST...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT WED AND SHIFTING EASTWARD. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH LATE TUE. THE GENERAL SOLUTION AMONG THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE TUE NEAR 31N75W...THEN DRIFT NE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW IN THE NE GULF WED MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA WED NIGHT. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE MODELS WITH REGARD TO THE DEVELOPMENT AN EXACT LOCATION OF THIS LOW. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS REVERTED BACK TO A MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z UKMET...BUT STRONGER THAN THE 00Z GFS THROUGH LATE WED...BUT DOES NOT RADICALLY DEEPEN THE LOW OVER THE GULF STREAM AS THE UKMET DOES...MORE IN LEAGUE WITH THE GFS AND EC ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE THE ECMWF WAS BLENDED INTO THE FORECAST FOR WED AND THU FOR N OF 25N W OF 65W. SW WINDS WILL BE REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WITH 8 TO 12 FT SEAS BY LATE THU N OF 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO MON. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.