000 AGXX40 KNHC 211925 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 225 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. USED NWPS OUTPUT FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. BUOY AND PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS OVER THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ARE INDICATING FRESH TO STRONG SE TO S WINDS THIS MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRES OVER NW TEXAS AND HIGH PRES FROM THE MID-ATLC COAST SW TO N CENTRAL GULF. BUOYS OFF THE TEXAS COAST INDICATE SEAS IN THE NW GULF ARE REACHING 8 TO 12 FT WITH BUOY 42019 AT 28N95W PRESENTLY REPORTING THE HIGHEST OF THE SEAS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING OVER A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS NE AND THE LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO EASTERN TEXAS TONIGHT...THEN STALL. A SURGE OF INTENSIFYING HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RE- ENERGIZE THE FRONT INTO A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES INTO THE NW GULF LATE SUN AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL REACH TO NEAR 25N BY SUN NIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL ONCE AGAIN...AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE AS A COASTAL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. LOW PRES THEN FORMS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TUE...AND QUICKLY TRACKS NE TOWARDS THE NE GULF THROUGH WED NIGHT DRAGGING A STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH IT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH FROM NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND SW TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE WED NIGHT...AND FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA THU. THE FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BUILDING SEAS AND MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. THE WINDS DIMINISH THU...WITH AN AREA OF N 15-20 KT WINDS LINGERING IN THE NE GULF. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. USED NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 1444 UTC ASCAT PASS REVEALED A SWATH OF NE TO E 20-25 KT WINDS ON THE LEE OF CUBA BETWEEN 78W AND 82W. SIMILAR WINDS WHERE NOTED SSW OF HISPANIOLA TO NEAR 15N AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE 12 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS WHAT WAS EARLIER A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT NOW A SHEAR LINE FROM HAITI SW TO NEAR 14N2W. HIGH PRES IS PRESENT TO THE NW OF THE SHEAR LINE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS NOW IDENTIFIED ALONG 67W. THE GALE WARNING FOR THE AREA NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA COVERING FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W RECENTLY ENDED AS WINDS HAVE LOWERED TO JUST UNDER 35 KT THERE. HOWEVER...LARGE SEAS OF 10-14 FT CONTINUE THERE. ELSEWHERE...NE TO E WINDS OF 20-30 KT ARE EVIDENT FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 KT. THE SHEAR LINE WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. THE STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA IN COMBINATION WITH LOW PRES OVR COLOMBIA WILL RESULT IN AN ANOTHER PULSE OF WINDS NE-E WINDS TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT...AND AGAIN LATE MON NIGHT AS FURTHER AIDED WITH THE DRAINAGE OFF THE LAND WITH SEAS REMAINING RATHER LARGER SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. A WESTERN ATLC FRONT WILL BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE N OF THE AREA AND HELP WEAKEN THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN THE S CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN SEA AFTER MON NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THESE WINDS COULD STILL REACH UP TO 30 KT LATE AT NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. FOR THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS TO 55W...A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS EASTERLY SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FT PER ALTIMETER AND BUOY DATA WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...SUBSIDING THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS THE TRADES DIMINISH. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS WITH OO UTC ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. USED NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON NIGHT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TUE THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE FRONT EARLIER DESCRIBED HAS NOW STALLED FROM NEAR 23N65W SW TO THE N COAST OF HAITI. THE 1438 ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH REPORTS FROM BUOY 41045 NEAR 24N68W AND BUOY 41049 AT 27N63W SHOW NE 20 TO 25 K WINDS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE FRONT. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO THE E OF ZONE 115 AND 121 IN COMBINATION WITH THE FRONTAL PORTION E OF THE FORECAST WATERS HAS PRODUCED SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY JUST TO THE NE OF THOSE ZONES N OF 25N. THIS ACTIVITY IS PULLING AWAY FROM THE ZONES. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LEFT BEHIND WITHIN ABOUT 60-90 NM NW OF THE FRONT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST ALONG THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA...AND NEAR THE NW COAST OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO MON. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN. HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH MON NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE SE GEORGIA AND NE FLORIDA COASTS LATE MON MORNING OR EARLY MON AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM NEAR 31N72W TO SE FLORIDA BY MON EVENING... AND FROM 30N65W TO 24N74W AND STATIOANRY TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTS. MODELS ARE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LOW PRES FORMS ALONG THE TROUGH E OF NE FLORIDA TUE AFTERNOON...AND MOVES TO NEAR 31N75W EARLY WED AND TO WELL N OF THE AREA WED NIGHT. INCREASING SW WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE NW WATERS LATE WED INTO THU AS THE LOW PUSHES A COLD FRONT SE TO A POSITION FROM NEAR 31N75W TO E CENTRAL FLORIDA BY EARLY THU. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN REACH FROM NEAR 31N68W TO 26N75W...AND BECOME STATIONARY WESTWARD FROM THERE TO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 10 FT IN THE INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE N TO NE AT 20-25 KT WITH SEAS INCREASING TO 6-9 FT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.