000 AGXX40 KNHC 210800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE INTO TUE...THEN MEDIUM THROUGH WED. BUOY AND PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS OVER THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ARE INDICATING FRESH TO STRONG SE TO S WINDS THIS MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER NW TEXAS AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA. BUOYS OFF THE TEXAS COAST INDICATE SEAS IN THE NW GULF ARE REACHING 8 TO 11 FT. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH LATER TODAY AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS NE AND THE LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF THIS EVENING...REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO NE MEXICO BY LATE SUNDAY...THEN START TO STALL FROM SW FLORIDA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO BY LATE MONDAY. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH LATE MON. THE SREF INDICATES FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTS OF TAMAULIPAS AND NORTHERN VERACRUZ TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 1 NM AT TIMES. FOR TUESDAY AN WEDNESDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A STRONG MID/UPPERS SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...SUPPORTING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NW GULF. THIS IS AT ODDS WITH THE ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS OF BOTH MODELS WHICH SHOW NO SUCH IMPULSE. IT IS ALSO AHEAD OF AND MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE UKMET AND CMC SO FAR. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS SE REACHING FROM NEAR TAMPA TO THE FAR SW GULF BY LATE WED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM- HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA NEAR THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO COSTA RICA. AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 03 UTC INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE FRONT W OF 75W...AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS STARTING TO PULSE OFF COLOMBIA THAT ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE BEFORE SUNRISE WITH ADDED OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE EFFECTS. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE TODAY AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH ALONG THE DYING BOUNDARY. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF THE AREA IS IN POSITION TO ALLOW THE WINDS OFF COLOMBIA TO PULSE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE AGAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST THEREAFTER AND GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK OFF COLOMBIA ALTHOUGH STRONG WINDS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED AT LEAST AT NIGHT. ELSEWHERE ONLY MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SE WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. FOR THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS TO 55W...A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS EASTERLY SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...SUBSIDING THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE TRADES DIMINISH. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A STALLING FRONT REACHING FROM 21N65W TO NE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ASCAT SATELLITE DATA AND OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOY 41045 NEAR 24N68W SHOW 20 TO 25 KT ON THE NW SIDE OF THE FRONT. NORTHERLY SWELL THAT HAD BEEN ACTIVE OVER THE AREA THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS SUBSIDED SOMEWHAT AT LEAST N OF 24N. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT BUILDS N OF THE AREA THEN SHIFTS EAST AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE S GEORGIA COAST SUN NIGHT. THE SECOND FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N72W TO SE FLORIDA BY LATE MONDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT THAN EARLIER WITH REGARD TO LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND SHIFTING NE OF THE AREA TUE AND WED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.