000 AGXX40 KNHC 201801 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 101 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH SE-S 20-25 KT RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SW-W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH ELEVATED PLATFORMS REPORTING 30 KT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THIS AFTERNOON WITH THESE E-SE 20-25 KT CONDITIONS SPREADING E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF...EXCEPT FOR AN EMBEDDED SWATH OF 25-30 KT WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SAT WITH SE-S 10-15 KT FLOW FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...AND E-SE 15-20 KT FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS BY LATE SAT NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY E ACROSS THE N GULF WATERS ON SUN...THEN ACCELERATE E REACHING FROM THE S FL TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE SUN NIGHT. RE-ENFORCING WILL INCREASE THE NE FLOW TO 20-25 KT OVER THE NW GULF ON MON EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUE EVENING. SREF DEPICTING FOG ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST ON SUN NIGHT THEN SPREADING N ALONG THE TX COAST ON MON NIGHT AND THUS INTRODUCED INTO WEATHER GRIDS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM- HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM E CUBA TO EXTREME NORTHERN COSTA RICA WILL GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY. NORTHERLY POST-FRONTAL 20-25 KT WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 72-84W WITH AN EMBEDDED NARROW SWATH OF NE 25-30 KT FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND CONTINUING SW TO ABOUT 17N77W THIS EVENING. MINIMAL GALE WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE E NIGHT OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THROUGH MON NIGHT. FRESH TRADES EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR E CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN INCREASING A STRONG BREEZE ON SAT ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF THE LEEWARDS. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF NE WINDS DEVELOPING OFF THE NW COAST COAST OF COLOMBIA. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE BROAD REMNANTS OF TWO MERGING FRONTS EXTEND FROM 31N61W TO HISPANIOLA WITH CONVECTION ENHANCED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS E OF 65W...AND ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS EXTENDING NE FROM HISPANIOLA...AND IS ALL DENOTED IN THE WEATHER GRIDS. THE POST- FRONTAL FLOW HAS DIMINISHED TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE AREA W OF 65W AROUND A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING E OFF FL ALONG ABOUT 27N. THE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY RE-ORIENT THIS AFTERNOON TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT AND INCREASING THE NE FLOW TO 20-25 KT S OF 25N WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE MERGING FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD N ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 29N W OF EARLY SAT WITH AN EMBEDDED SWATH OF 25-30 KT WINDS FROM 27N64W TO 24N70W. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS THE RIDGE RE-ORIENTATES FROM 31N72W TO PORT CANAVERAL WITH SE 20-25 KT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE NW WATERS. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT A LITTLE ESE EARLY SUN ALLOWING A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS ACCOMPANIED BY A 10-15 KT SW-W- NW WIND SHIFT. RE-ENFORCING WILL ACCELERATE THE FRONT E ON MON WITH NE 20-25 KT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 30N W OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL BEGIN TO STALL FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON MON NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO SUN. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.