000 AGXX40 KNHC 171719 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1219 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE FL BIG BEND AREA TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL MOVE SE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AROUND SUNRISE ON WED. NORTHERLY 20-25 KT POST-FRONTAL FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS TO A MAX OF 11 FT. SOUTHWESTERLY 20-25 KT WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING HAVE DIMINISHED TO 15-20 KT. A SECONDARY NW SURGE WILL SPREAD SE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT INTO WED ACCOMPANIED BY 20-25 KT N FLOW...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PATCH AND BRIEF SWATH OF 30-35 MINIMAL GALE WINDS FORECAST OVER THE FAR SW WATERS WED MORNING INTO EARLY WED PER THE PREVIOUS TEXT AND GRAPHIC PACKAGE. A NE-SW POST-FRONTAL RIDGE WILL QUICKLY SET UP THU NIGHT WITH NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS AND SE-S 20-25 KT RETURN FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE NW WATERS ON THU NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN ON FRI WITH E-SE 20-25 KT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF...FURTHER INCREASING TO 20-30 KT OVER THE N- CENTRAL WATERS ON FRI NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SAT 10-15 KT FLOW FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND 15-20 KT FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. GALE CONDITIONS AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A MAX OF 25-30 KT THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT ON THU...THEN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT LATE THU NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY POST-FRONTAL 20-25 KT WINDS SPREADING S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ON WED...AND FURTHER RE- ENFORCED LATE WED NIGHT AND THU WITH NE 20-30 KT FLOW EXPECTED W OF A LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NICARAGUA ON THU NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD E ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON FRI NIGHT WITH MINIMAL GALE WINDS DEVELOPING OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. FRESH TRADES EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR E CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL WATERS THROUGH SAT THEN INCREASING A STRONG BREEZE ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE. A 150 NM WIDE FRONTAL TROUGH OR SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS NE-SW ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS AND THROUGHOUT THE ATLC APPROACH TO THE MONA PASSAGE...AND HAS BEGUN TO LIFT BACK TO THE NW. A SECOND FRONTAL TROUGH HAS STALLED ABOUT 150-210 NM TO ITS NW. LONG PERIOD NNW SWELL...COMBINED SEAS OF 9-11 FT WILL PROPAGATE S INTO THE TROPICAL WATERS NE OF THE LEEWARDS TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE GA COAST WILL END THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N73W TO THE FL STRAITS AT SUNRISE WED WITH SOUTHWESTERLY 30-35 KT MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AGAIN WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE FRONT ON WED...THEN DIMINISHING BELOW GALE BY WED EVENING. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AT SUNRISE THU WITH 20-30 KT NW FLOW W OF THE FRONT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT WINDS ON THU NIGHT. THE POST-FRONTAL FLOW WILL VEER TO N-NE ON FRI... EXCEPT 20-25 KT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ATLC APPROACH TO WINDWARD PASSAGE. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL THEN SPREAD N ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATERS S OF 27N ON FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING WED. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TODAY. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING TODAY. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING TODAY. GALE WARNING WED. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING WED. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.