000 AGXX40 KNHC 161721 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1221 PM EST MON FEB 16 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS USED TO ADJUST WINDS. 12Z NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVES. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH MAINLY 3-5 FT SEAS EXCEPT UP TO 6 FT IN THE NW GULF. DEVELOPING LOW PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS AROUND SUNRISE. FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO TUE MORNING...PUSHING SE OF THE BASIN WED MORNING. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ AROUND SUNRISE WED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRES OVER TEXAS WILL BUILD INTO THE NW GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM NW TO SE AS THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA. A REINFORCING FRONT OR TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE FAR NEW GULF WED NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT TO OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF COASTAL PLAINS BY THU MORNING...THEN TO OVER THE CAROLINAS BY LATE THU NIGHT ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW TO SPREAD FROM THE WESTERN GULF TO THE ENTIRE GULF BY FRI MORNING. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL BE PREVELANT THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG ACROSS THE BASIN. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7-10 FT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST LATE SAT NIGHT WHICH WOULD WEAKEN THE PRES GRADIENT AND DIMINISH THE RETURN FLOW TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH BY LATE SAT NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS USED TO ADJUST WINDS. 12Z NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...A LOCALLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT REMAINS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 1008 MB LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA AND RIDGING ALONG THE SPINE OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS PATTERN WAS SUPPORTING MINIMAL GALE FORCE NE-E WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THIS MORNING WITH A BRIEF LULL OCCURRING NOW. WINDS WILL PULSE BACK UP TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE THIS EVENING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUE. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...IN THE LEE OF EASTERN CUBA...AND IN THE LEE OF HISPANIOLA. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS DURING THE NEXT 12-30 HOURS AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. MEANWHILE THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS BETWEEN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER THE AREA SPREADING DOWNWIND TO THE SW. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WED MORNING. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS WED NIGHT THEN WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM HAITI TO NE HONDURAS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE N-NE WINDS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND IT WITH STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 7-11 FT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN BY THU EVENING AND CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN CASE MINIMAL GALES BECOME MORE LIKELY WITH MODEL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF SOLID 30 KT WINDS...INCLUDING IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WILL COVER ALMOST THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE STRONG HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE NE-E WINDS PREVAIL ALONG WITH 5-6 FT SEAS. A SET OF NW-N SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE WATERS TUE MORNING SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 7-10 FT. ATLC HIGH PRES WILL THEN STRENGTHEN WITH WINDS INCREASING TO FRESH LEVELS WED MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL MAINTAIN SEAS UP TO 10 FT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS USED TO ADJUST WINDS. 12Z NWPS BLENDED WITH 0.25 DEG ECWAVE TO ADJUST WAVES. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 24N65W TO THE N CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA WILL WEAKEN OVER THE FAR SE AND S PORTIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AROUND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WHICH EXTENDS FROM NEAR LONG BAY SOUTH CAROLINA TO NEAR 24N71W. SEAS VARY QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE BASIN...WITH 4-7 FT SEAS IN THE NW ZONE...AND 8-16 FT IN NORTHERLY SWELL IN THE NE CORNER WHERE THEY ARE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. A NEW COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES WILL APPROACH FROM THE W TONIGHT. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES WILL SUPPORT INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE COAST OF SE GEORGIA AND NE FLORIDA THIS EVENING WITH 20-30 KT SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...INCREASING TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY SUNRISE TUE. THE LOW WILL MOVE BY N OF 31N TUE WHILE DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE BASIN. SOUTHERLY GALE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS ZONES AMZ111 TO AMZ115 THROUGH WED. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N77W TO NEAR DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA TUE EVENING...FROM 31N73W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA EARLY WED MORNING...FROM BERMUDA TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS WED EVENING...FROM NEAR 26N65W TO HISPANIOLA THU NIGHT...THEN WILL WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 24N65W TO NEAR 20N70W FRI. A REINFORCING FRONT OR TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...INCREASING NW WINDS BACK TO 30 KT ACROSS AMZ111 AND AMZ113 DURING THAT TIME PERIOD AND A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN IF MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS UPWARD. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING WED. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT INTO TUE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING TUE INTO WED. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING WED. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.