000 AGXX40 KNHC 151759 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1259 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. 12Z NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF CLIPPING THE NE GULF WATERS WHILE 1023 MB HIGH PRES IS IN THE N CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N90W. GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS COVER THE BASIN ALONG WITH 1-3 FT SEAS...EXCEPT 3-5 FT IN THE SW GULF WHERE WINDS ARE LOCALLY TO 20 KT. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE GULF. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER SE TEXAS WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO INCREASE RETURN FLOW TO 15-20 KT BY MON MORNING. THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES WILL SLIDE TO THE E ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAL PLAINS DRAGGING A COLD FRONT BEHIND IT. THAT FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF MON NIGHT WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOW ONLY EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF VERACRUZ S OF 22N TUE NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO TUE MORNING...PUSHING SE OF THE BASIN WED MORNING. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...SLIDING TO THE NE OVER THE CAROLINAS BY THU ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW ONCE AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONGER HIGH PRES AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER TEXAS BY FRI MORNING WILL INCREASE THE RETURN FLOW TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN FOR FRI. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. 12Z NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE PRES GRADIENT HAS INCREASED BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ALONG THE SPINE OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA. WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE BUT ARE FORECAST TO PULSE BACK TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN LATE MON NIGHT. THIS TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS ALSO SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO SE OF JAMAICA...ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...AND IN THE LEE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY TUE MORNING WHILE WINDS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN TURN TO THE SE AS A COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO APPROACHES. THAT FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WED MORNING WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF IT AND CAUSING THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO RETRACT TO JUST OFFSHORE OF NW COLOMBIA. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO CENTRAL BELIZE WED EVENING...FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER THU MORNING...STALLING AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING FROM SW HAITI TO NE COSTA RICA THROUGH FRI. SEAS OF 7-10 FT WILL COVER THE ENTIRE NW CARIBBEAN THU THROUGH FRI AS FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW PERSISTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...INCREASING TO 30 KT NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...HIGH PRES RIDGING IS MAINTAINING MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS...BECOMING MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING BACK TO EASTERLY WED MORNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG BY FRI AS CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS. MEANWHILE SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 5-7 FT. LARGE NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE IN THE NORTHERN PORTION TUE...SPILLING SOUTHWARD THROUGH WED. REINFORCING NE SWELLS WILL ARRIVE WED THROUGH FRI KEEPING SEAS AT 7-10 FT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. 12Z NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. A COLD FRONT THAT WAS APPROACHING THE SE WATERS HAS DISSIPATED LATE THIS MORNING. A NEW STRONG COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE NW WATERS AND WINDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO GALE FORCE N OF 29N/30N IN ZONES AMZ111 AND AMZ113. MODERATE TO FRESH NW-N WINDS ARE S OF 27N. WAVEWATCH III MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO LOW ACROSS THE BASIN (UP TO 3 FT TOO LOW) WHILE THE NWPS INITIALIZED OFF OF IT WAS SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THE LATEST OBS GRID WAS USED TO INITIALIZE THE WAVE HEIGHT GRIDS WITH INTERPOLATION OUT TO 24 HOURS. LARGE SEAS ARE UP TO 18-22 FT N OF 30N. THE COLD FRONT WILL RACE TO THE SE AND WILL EXTEND FROM 29N65W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS THIS EVENING...FROM 25N65W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA MON MORNING...THEN STALLING AND WASHING OUT ALONG 22N/23N BY MON EVENING. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS ZONE AMZ115 LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THEN WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS MON MORNING. HIGH PRES RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINAS WILL VERY BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE NW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MON BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WESTERN WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BACK TO GALE FORCE AHEAD OF THIS NEXT FRONT IN ZONE AMZ111 BY LATE MON NIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS TOWARD SOUTH CAROLINA...TIGHTENING THE PRES GRADIENT. GALE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH ZONES AMZ113 AND 115 TUE THROUGH WED. THE LOW WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE NW PORTION TUE NIGHT WITH FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NW WINDS ARRIVING BEHIND IT TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT OR TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON AND NIGHT MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG NW FLOW ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE BASIN. CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS FRI AS HIGH PRES ONCE AGAIN SETS UP OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE THE COLD FRONT STALLS FROM 24N65W TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY FRI MORNING. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. GALE WARNING MON NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING MON NIGHT INTO TUE. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING TODAY. GALE WARNING TUE. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.