000 AGXX40 KNHC 150750 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS USED TO ADJUST WINDS. 00Z NWPS AND MWW3 USED TO ADJUST WAVES. INITIALLY...THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF LATE MON AND PASS SE OF THE GULF BY 12Z WED. THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND STRONGER THAN THE GFS SOLUTION THROUGH TUE...BUT WINDS IN THE GFS BEHIND THE FRONT BECOME STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF AS AN ARCTIC SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE NIGHT AND DRAGS A COLDER AIR MASS SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF. NEITHER MODEL SHOWS A GALE ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ. THE 00Z GEFS HAS ALSO DROPPED ANY CHANCE OF A GALE THERE. THE 21Z SREFS ONLY CARRY UP TO A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES JUST N OF TAMPICO TUE MORNING...BUT SHOW AS HIGH AS A 1 IN 3 CHANCE OF GALES WHERE THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IS CLOSEST TO THE COAST AROUND 20N TUE AFTERNOON UNTIL TUE EVENING. CONFIDENCE HAS WANED IN A GALE FOR ZONE GMZ017 IN THE W CENTRAL GULF...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE GALE FOR THE SW GULF CONSIDERING THE HIGH RESOLUTION SREF SUPPORT. THE GFS WILL BE USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST IN THE GULF. THIS IS A CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS THINKING. THE MWW3 WAS USED IN ADDITION TO SOME LOWER WEIGHT TO THE NWPS PRIMARILY BECAUSE OF THE SWITCH IN THE WIND FIELD PREFERENCE TO A WEAKER SOLUTION IN THE WESTERN GULF. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS USED TO ADJUST WINDS. 00Z NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVES. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE FROM THE HIGH ALONG THE SPINE OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOW FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS ARE ALSO IN PLACE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. THE QUARTER DEGREE GFS FORECASTS GALE CONDITIONS AT 06Z EACH MORNING THROUGH TUE MORNING AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MERGES WITH NEW HIGH PRES OVER FLORIDA TONIGHT. THE N TO S RIDGE AXIS WILL THEN PASS E INTO THE ATLC MON. WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH SUN NIGHT ONWARD AS THE PRES GRADIENT SHIFTS E. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE GREATER ANTILLES TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND THE ATLC PASSAGES AS WELL AS S OF HISPANIOLA BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH TUE. THE STRONGER GFS LIKELY HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THE TERRAIN IMPACTS NEAR THE COAST IN THESE REGIONS. A NEW FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN BY WED MORNING. BY THU MORNING...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF EXTEND THE FRONT FROM EASTERN CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS...WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS EXPECTED TO DRIVE THE FRONT...WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE THE EDGE TO THE GFS WITH THE FORECAST. THE 00Z GFS WILL BE USED TO ADJUST THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HERE THROUGH THU NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS USED TO ADJUST WINDS. 00Z NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVES. THE 0240Z ASCAT-A PASS SHOWED GALE FORCE WINDS HAD ALREADY MOVED INTO THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF WERE TOO WEAK HERE. WINDS AND SEAS WERE BUMPED UP OVER THE FIRST FEW PERIODS TO MATCH THE OBSERVATIONS. THE 00Z GEFS SHOWS A CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS OVER WATERS N OF 29N THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT BY THE TIME IT MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 12Z. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GFS SHOULD HAVE AN EDGE HERE FOR ADJUSTING THE FORECAST. AS MENTIONED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION...THE GFS IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF MON NIGHT AND TUE BEFORE PASSING OFF THE SE GEORGIA COAST BY TUE AFTERNOON. THE 00Z GFS IS FASTER CARRYING THE FRONT OFFSHORE THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. IT IS ALSO STRONGER...WITH THE GFS SHOWING GALES AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUE WHILE THE ECMWF CAPS WINDS AT 30 KT. THE 00Z GEFS SHOWS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES HERE TUE AT 12Z AND 18Z. THE 21Z SREF IS IN CONCURRENCE...FAVORING THE STRONGER 00Z GFS SOLUTION FOR ADJUSTING THE FORECAST. THE NWPS HAS NOT CAUGHT UP TO THE STRONGER PREFERRED WIND STRENGTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUE AND IS TOO LOW. THE MWW3 WAS USED HERE. OTHERWISE...THE NWPS SEEMS REASONABLE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE LATE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. GALE WARNING TONIGHT. GALE WARNING MON NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING TODAY. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.