000 AGXX40 KNHC 141830 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. 12Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. 1026 MB HIGH PRES IS LOCATED IN THE N CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N94W. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS N OF 23N AND GENTLE TO MODERATE N-NE WINDS S OF 23N. SEAS ARE 1-3 FT ACROSS THE BASIN. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT WILL CLIP THE FAR NE AND FAR EASTERN GULF LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING WITH WINDS BRIEFLY BECOMING NW-N AT 20 KT. HIGH PRES OVER THE SE UNITED STATES WILL THEN CONTROL THE WEATHER SUN EVENING WITH RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE GULF AND 2-4 FT SEAS...EXCEPT 1-3 FT SEAS IN THE CENTRAL GULF. RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TIGHTENS. THAT LOW WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE ENE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF IN ITS WAKE. THAT FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM 30N93W TO 27N97W MON EVENING...FROM APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO NEAR 21N97W...PUSHING SE OF THE BASIN BY WED MORNING. GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT JUST OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ AND TAMAULIPAS TUE NIGHT...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-12 FT BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN AND SE UNITED STATES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH FRESH TO STRONG RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS BY FRI MORNING. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. 12Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. BROAD TROUGHING IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXISTS WITH MODERATE TO FRESH N-NE WINDS W OF 70W...WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS E OF 70W. SEAS ARE MAINLY 3-5 FT ACROSS THE BASIN. THE EXCEPTION IS NEAR THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND 5-8 FT SEAS. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THIS AREA TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT...DIMINISHING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THEN ARE FORECAST TO PULSE BACK TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE THE FOLLOWING TWO NIGHTS AS WELL. N-NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG DOWNWIND OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TONIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH NEAR NICARAGUA SUN NIGHT...BUT WILL PERSIST AND PULSE DOWNWIND OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WHILE ALSO INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG IN THE LEE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON EVENING. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE EVENING...BECOMING SE-S IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THAT FRONT WILL PLUNGE SE OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED MORNING...EXTENDING FROM 22N80W TO NORTHERN BELIZE WED EVENING...THEN FROM 20N72W TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER THU EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE ENTIRE NW CARIBBEAN BEHIND THE FRONT BUILDING SEAS TO 7-10 FT...AND WILL INCREASE TO 30 KT IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY THU EVENING. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN WILL VEER TO NE-E MON AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...OCCASIONALLY SHIFTING TO E-SE AS CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING OSCILLATES FROM THE N TO THE S. SEAS AT 5-7 FT IN NW-N SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON EVENING...WITH LARGE NW SWELL ARRIVING TUE MORNING...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THU INTO FRI. COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-11 FT ACROSS THE WATERS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. 12Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 28N65W TO 26N76W WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED NW OF PUERTO RICO WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT ALONG THE ATLC COAST OF FLORIDA WHERE NW-N 15-20 KT WINDS ARE OCCURRING. SEAS ARE 6-10 FT...NOTABLY 2-3 FT HIGHER THAN THE LATEST AND PREVIOUS MWW3 MODEL GUIDANCE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW PORTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS AHEAD OF IT WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE REACHING MINIMAL GALE FORCE N OF 29N AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND N OF 30N BEHIND THE FRONT BY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUN. LARGE SEAS UP TO 20-22 FT ALONG 31N WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING CONTINUING TO PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 27N SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON EVENING. THAT COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N72W TO S FLORIDA BY SUN MORNING...FROM 25N65W TO N CENTRAL CUBA BY MON MORNING...ALONG 23N/22N MON NIGHT. HIGH PRES RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW TO THE SE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...SHIFTING E LATE MON NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NW PORTION. PARENT SURFACE LOW PRES WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL STATES INTO THE SE UNITED STATES MON NIGHT INTO TUE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW AND TRAILING FRONT WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS N OF 29N/30N TUE...SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH WED WHILE REACHING TO AT LEAST 40 KT WED MORNING. THE ACTUAL FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N79W TO 29N81W LATE TUE NIGHT...THEN FROM 31N70W TO THE N CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA BY WED AFTERNOON...THEN FROM 29N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THU MORNING. ANOTHER SET OF LARGE NW-N SWELL WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE SW N ATLC WED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. GALE WARNING SUN NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO SUN. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.