000 AGXX40 KNHC 140756 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 256 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWF USED TO ADJUST WIND MON NIGHT ONWARD. 00Z NWPS AND EC WAVE USED TO ADJUST WAVES. INITIALLY...DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST PATTERN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT LARGE THROUGH MON. MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE WHEN THE GFS BECOMES SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS TO BRING A FRONT OFFSHORE INTO THE NW GULF MON NIGHT. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER...SO THE ECMWF WAS USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST. IT CARRIES THE FRONT INTO THE NW GULF MON EVENING...BUT IS SLOW TO INCREASE THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT UNTIL DAYTIME TUE WHEN A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ENHANCING THE NORTHERLY FLOW AND DRAGGING COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR SOUTHWARD. GALES ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ BY 00Z TUE NIGHT. THEY SHOULD SHIFT S AND PERSIST UNTIL SUNRISE WED. THE 00Z GEFS SHOWS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF GALES... 30 PERCENT...AT 00Z WED. FOR SEAS...THE NWPS AND EC WAVE WERE USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST. THE EC WAVE WAS ADDED TO THE MIX BECAUSE THE PREVIOUS SOLUTION WAS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT AND ONSET OF A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE BEHIND IT THAN THE PREFERRED ECMWF WIND SOLUTION. SEAS STILL REQUIRED A MANUAL BUMP UP IN THE GALE WARNING AREA TO MATCH THE STRENGTH OF THE FORECAST WINDS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS USED TO ADJUST WIND WITH THE ECMWF ADDED TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. 00Z NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVES. LARGE N SWELLS MOVING THROUGH THE ATLC PASSAGES IN THE NE CARIBBEAN TODAY ARE SUBSIDING. THE NWPS HAS A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SEAS OVER THE AREA. FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL SHIFT MORE EASTERLY AND BEGIN TO EXPAND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES S INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA. THE GFS FORECASTS GALE CONDITIONS AT 06Z SAT MORNING...SUN MORNING AND MON MORNING AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MERGES WITH NEW HIGH PRES OVER FLORIDA SUN NIGHT. THE N TO S RIDGE AXIS WILL THEN PASS E INTO THE ATLC MON. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO N WINDS WILL ALSO FUNNEL FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA SUN AND MON ASSOCIATED THE WEAKENING FRONT. THIS FRONT SHOULD JUST SKIRT THE N PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE NIGHT. WITH THE GFS PREFERRED OVER THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE AND CONSIDERING IT IS THE HIGHEST RESOLUTION FORECAST OVER THE AREA ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE WINDS ARE ASSISTED BY TERRAIN EFFECTS...THE GFS WAS USED TO ADJUST THE GRIDS. BY WED...THE ECMWF IS PREFERRED WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. SEE THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. THE NWPS WAVES ARE HIGHER THAN THE MWW3 OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH THE SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE ATLC PASSAGES AS WELL AS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE PREFERRED STRENGTH OF THE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND THE LARGE SWELL CURRENTLY SUBSIDING AND EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE SW N ATLC THROUGH MON. WAVES WERE ADJUSTED TO MATCH THE ECMWF PREFERRED WINDS WED AND WED NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS USED TO ADJUST WINDS THROUGH MON WITH THE ECMWF PREFERRED THEREAFTER. 00Z NWPS AND EC WAVE USED TO ADJUST WAVES. THE 00Z GEFS SHOWS A CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS OVER WATERS N OF 29N FROM EARLY SUN MORNING THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY SUN AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GFS SHOULD HAVE AN EDGE HERE FOR ADJUSTING THE FORECAST. AS MENTIONED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION...THE ECMWF IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF MON NIGHT AND TUE BEFORE PASSING OFF THE SE GEORGIA COAST TUE AFTERNOON. THE 00Z GFS IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED...CARRYING A STRONGER FRONT OFFSHORE EARLY WED MORNING. DESPITE THEIR DIFFERENCES...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN NW WATERS BY TUE AFTERNOON. THE GFS BECOMES STRONGER N OF THE AREA WITH THE SYSTEM AND SENDS LARGER SWELL INTO N WATERS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. FOR NOW...THIS SOLUTION SEEMS OVERDONE. THE FORECAST FAVORS THE LOWER EC WAVE BY WED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO SUN. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING SUN. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.