000 AGXX40 KNHC 131909 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 209 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS USED TO ADJUST WIND. 12Z NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVES. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CLEARING THE SOUTHERN GULF AND OTHER THAN A DROP IN DEWPOINTS WINDS REMAIN NORTHERLY AND MODERATE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRES IS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NW GULF WHERE WINDS ARE SHIFTING TO THE E-SE. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW 2-4 FT SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN. THE TAIL-END OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CLIP THE FAR NE AND EASTERN GULF LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WHILE HIGH PRES MEANDERS IN THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF MON MORNING WITH MAINLY MODERATE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF WATERS SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE GULF MON EVENING ALTHOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL VARY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT. GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO TUE NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PROPAGATE DOWN ACROSS THE REST OF THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WED AND WED NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS USED TO ADJUST WIND. 12Z NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVES. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS THAT WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA HAVE DIMINISHED TO FRESH LEVELS WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N-NE WINDS ELSEWHERE W OF 70W...AND E-SE WINDS E OF 70W. LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH SAT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SAT NIGHT WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS RETURNING TO NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVERALL...AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND DOWNWIND OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SPREAD TO THE LEE OF HISPANIOLA AND LEE OF EASTERN CUBA THROUGH MON. THE GRADIENT WILL THEN SLACKEN MON NIGHT WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS BECOMING CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT...THEN TO THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT. THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE NW CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN CHANNEL WED NIGHT WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS BEHIND IT FILTERING THROUGH THE CHANNEL. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...A STATIONARY FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 19N55W TO GUADELOUPE WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS. SCATTEROMETER AND BUOY DATA SHOW MODERATE E-SE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS... HIGHEST N OF 16N IN NW SWELL. WINDS WILL BECOME NE-E TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL REMAIN 4-7 FT THROUGH MON. LARGE NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT... BUILDING TO 10-11 FT N OF 16N THROUGH TUE. CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES WILL STRENGTHEN BY MID-WEEK WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES SPREADING ACROSS THE WATERS WHICH WILL SUPPORT AND MAINTAIN 8-11 FT SEAS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH WED NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS USED TO ADJUST WIND. 12Z NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVES. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N66W TO CENTRAL CUBA WITH NORTHERLY SWELLS OF 7-11 FT ACROSS THE WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND STALL OUT FROM 29.5N65W TO THE SE BAHAMAS LATE TONIGHT...DISSIPATING BY SAT EVENING AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE NEXT FRONT WILL INDUCE GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N/29N STARTING IN ZONE AMZ111 LATE SAT NIGHT...SPREADING EASTWARD WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. THIS NEXT FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N74W TO S FLORIDA BY SUN MORNING...THEN QUICKLY FROM 25N65W TO THE SE BAHAMAS BY MON MORNING...DISSIPATING THROUGH TUE WITH HIGH PRES SPREADING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. LARGE SEAS UP TO 20-22 FT ARE EXPECTED ALONG 31N ON SUN. HIGH PRES WILL RETREAT OFF TO THE E BY TUE MORNING AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NW PORTION. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING STRONGER WITH THIS NEXT FRONT AND GALE FORCE WINDS BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS MAY OCCUR COMMENCING TUE AFTERNOON. THE NEXT FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N79W TO 29N81W LATE TUE NIGHT...FROM 31N72W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WED AFTERNOON...THEN FROM BERMUDA TO THE SE BAHAMAS LATE WED NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING SAT NIGHT. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING SUN. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.