000 AGXX40 KNHC 121912 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 212 PM EST THU FEB 12 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT SINKING ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF GULF THIS AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY FROM BIG BEND TO 27N90W TO UPPER MEXICAN COAST...AND WILL MOVE S-SE AND STALL ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY SAT. INCREASING NE FLOW BUILDING ACROSS TEXAS COASTAL WATERS TO 15-20 KT ATTM WHERE SEAS NOW REPORTED AT 4-5 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS EXPECTED TO BUILD BEHIND FRONT THROUGH FRI AS REINFORCING HIGH PRES BUILDS S IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HIGH TO SETTLE INTO NW GULF SAT AND THEN COLLAPSE THROUGH SUN AS RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING INTO TEXAS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING SLY RETURN FLOW TO MATERIALIZE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT AND INCREASE FURTHER TO 20-30 KT NE PORTIONS AS LOW DEVELOPS ALONG FRONT ACROSS NRN GULF STATES TUE. NEXT BIG FRONT TO BLAST ACROSS BASIN TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED WITH GFS SUGGESTING SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS. GFS CURRENTLY SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THIS FRONT THAN ECMWF. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT ACROSS NE CARIB OVERNIGHT AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 20N56W TO NEAR 16.5N70W AND NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH FURTHER SE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING OVERNIGHT THEN DRIFTING NW AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCAT PASSES FROM THIS MORNING SUGGESTED MODERATE N TO NE WINDS ACROSS BASIN W OF 70W...POSSIBLY 15-20 KT OFF OF COLOMBIA WHERE MAX SEAS WERE 5-6 FT. THE FIRST PULSE OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL HAS REACHED THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES AND FAR NW PART OF TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TODAY...AND WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT AS NEXT PULSE OF MORE NNW SWELL ARRIVES...THEN BEGINS TO SUBSIDE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT. WW3 WAS 2-4 FT LOW ACROSS THE UPSTREAM REGION THIS MORNING AND EVEN WORSE FARTHER NW...AND HAVE ATTEMPTED TO ALTER SWH BY HAND THROUGH FIRST 24 HOURS...AS ECWAVE SLIGHTLY BETTER. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING W OF 75W THIS MORNING WILL STRENGTHEN FRI THROUGH SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THEN WINDS BEGIN TO VEER MORE NE SUN THROUGH MON AS THE HIGH SHIFTS NE. PRES GRADIENT TO STRENGTHEN SUFFICIENTLY BY FRI NIGHT TO PRODUCE 25-30 KT NOCTURNAL MAX OFF OF COLOMBIA THAT WILL INCREASE A BIT FURTHER NEXT FEW NIGHTS TO BRING ABOUT BRIEF MINIMAL GALES THERE PER LATEST GFS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING REGION HAS BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF AREA TO THE NNE WITH WINDS WEAKENING BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS ATTM. LARGE N TO NW SWELL DOMINATES THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY AND WILL PEAK THROUGH THIS EVENING W OF 70W...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AREA WIDE LATE FRI THROUGH LATE SAT. 12Z SWH ANALYSIS SHOWED WW3 UP TO 8-9 FT LOW N OF 25N AND S OF 72W AS THIS WAS DOWNSTREAM AREA OF STORM FORCE WIND FIELD 48 HOURS AGO...WITH ECWAVE AND UKMET WAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT THERE...BUT ALSO 2-4 FT LOW...AND HAVE HAND EDITED TO ATTEMPT TO ADJUST IN LINE WITH OBS. FIRST PULSE OF NW SWELL HITTING N COASTS OF NE CARIB ISLANDS ATTM AND WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT AS THIS PULSE OF NNW HITS ISLANDS EARLY FRI MORNING. MODELS STILL EXPECTEDTO BE 1-2 FT LOW WITH THIS SECOND PULSE ACROSS SE HALF OF AREA. NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NW PORTION THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N64W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO WESTERN CUBA BY FRI NIGHT...THEN BECOME STATIONARY FROM NEAR 26N65W TO SE BAHAMAS EARLY SAT AND DISSIPATE SUN. MODELS INITIALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS FRONT AND NEXT...WITH EURO MODELS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND FARTHER SE BEYOND 48 HOURS AND HAVE NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION. THIRD COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AND WEAKEN OVER THE FAR SE AND S PORTIONS MON AND MON NIGHT...WITH GALES EXPECTED TO BRUSH N PORTIONS ON BOTH SIDES OF FRONTS...AND EURO MODELS SLIGHTLY FARTHER S TO 28.5N WITH GALES. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.