000 AGXX40 KNHC 111924 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 224 PM EST WED FEB 11 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS HIGH PRES ACROSS SE U.S. EXTENDS S ACROSS THE BASIN BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE NW CARIB...YIELDING LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT. HIGH TO SHIFT NE TONIGHT AS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SINK S ACROSS THE BASIN THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT...WITH REINFORCING HIGH BEHIND THIS NEW FRONT BRIEFLY PRODUCING FRESH NLY FLOW DIRECTLY BEHIND FRONT THEN DIMINISHING LATE FRI AS HIGH CENTER SETTLES INTO N GULF FRI NIGHT. THIS PATTERN TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUN BEFORE DEEPENING LOW MOVES ACROSS ROCKIES AND INTO PLAINS STATES SUN NIGHT AND MON AND HIGH PRES OPENS UP ACROSS THE BASIN FOR FRESH TO STRONG RETURN FLOW MON AND MON NIGHT...AND SEAS BUILDING 6-9 FT N PORTIONS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS LARGE AND INTENSE STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE W ATLC EXTENDS ITS CIRCULATION THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND GREATER ANTILLES...WITH A SERIES OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARIES EXTENDING SW ACROSS NW AND N CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN EXPECTED TO MOVE E THROUGH LATE THU AND NEARLY MERGE ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN AND N LEEWARD ISLANDS. MODERATE NW SWELL WILL REACH THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS EARLY THU AND BE OVERTAKEN BY A LARGE PULSE OF N-NW SWELL EARLY FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SWELL IS FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENTLY N AND STRONG ENOUGH TO MOVE THROUGH MONA PASSAGE AND ANEGADA PASSAGES AND REACH COASTAL VENEZUELA AND LEEWARDS COASTS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. STRONG NLY COMPONENT TO WINDS ACROSS W PORTIONS OF BASIN BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRES BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF E COAST AND INTO W ATLC AND WINDS VEER TO NE MON THEN BACK TO E BY EARLY TUE. RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED NLY WINDS 15-20 KT ALONG COAST OF NICARAGUA LATE MORNING AND WILL NOT BE HANDLED SUFFICIENTLY BY WW3 NEXT FEW DAYS AS THIS FLOW CONTINUES. NOCTURNAL MAX TO 25 KT OFF COAST OF COLOMBIA FORECAST TO RETURN THU NIGHT THEN TO 30 KT FRI NIGHT...THEN POSSIBLY BRIEFLY TO 35 KT SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS LARGE AND INTENSE STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE W ATLC EXTENDS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION S TO 18N ATTM...WITH STRONG NW TO W GALES WRAPPING AROUND W SEMICIRCLE AND THROUGH S QUAD OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING. STORM FORCE WINDS LIKELY SPREAD BARELY INTO OUR WATERS WITH AND BEHIND A MESO LOW DUMBELLING THROUGH SW PORTIONS LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING...AND I SHOULD HAVE PULLED THE TRIGGER ON THIS YESTERDAY. BUOY 41002 REMAINED AOA 30 FT OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING...AND HAS DROPPED TO 24 FT ATTM...AND REFLECTED THE NEAR STORM FORCE WIND FORCING UPSTREAM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. GALES INDICATED BY LATE MORNING SCAT PASSES TO THE N OF 26N...AND GFS SEEMED TO HAVE GOOD HANDLE IN THE SHORT TERM ON THE WIND FIELD WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALL WAVE MODELS RUNNING LOW N OF 26N AND W OF 65W...WITH WW3 UP TO 9 FT LOW AT 41002 THIS MORNING. THIS BUOYS 41047 AND 41046 SEEING THE FIRST PULSE OF W-NW SWELL AT 10 SECS CURRENTLY...WITH LARGE NW SWELL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS W OF 65W TONIGHT...AND HIT THE GREATER ANTILLES EARLY FRI. AGAIN...MODELS WILL PROBABLY VERIFY 2-4 FT LOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA NEXT 36-48 HRS. COLD FRONT FROM 30N60W TO N MONA PASSAGE ATTM AND WILL MOVE SE AND REACH FROM 24N60W TO CENTRAL PUERTO RICO THIS EVENING...AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKEN ACROSS THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS AND NE CARIBBEAN BY THU EVENING...THEN MEANDER NW SAT AND SUN. SECONDARY AND TERTIARY BOUNDARIES BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MERGE INTO A BROAD FRONTAL ZONE LATE THU-FRI. AS THIS STORM SYSTEM LIFTS NE OUT OF REGION...THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW PORTIONS LATE THU AND REACH FROM 31N61W TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS FRI EVENING...THEN BECOME STATIONARY FROM 26N65W TO SE BAHAMAS SAT EVENING THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN. ASSOCIATED LOW TRAJECTORY WILL BE FARTHER N THAN THIS PREVIOUS LOW...AND 20-25 KT WINDS WILL BRUSH N PORTIONS THE AND FRI BEFORE LIFTING OUT OF AREA. GALES AREA EXPECTED AGAIN TO BRUSH ACROSS WATERS N OF 29N SUN-MON AS THE NEXT LOW BOMBS OFF NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING TODAY. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. .AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING TODAY. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.