000 AGXX40 KNHC 101955 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS LAST OF 3 BOUNDARIES IS SWEEPING THROUGH BASIN ATTM...AND IS NOTHING MORE THAN A DRIER LINE AT PRESENT. NNW FLOW PREVAILS E OF 90W WITH 1019 MB HIGH NOW OVER W PORTIONS NEAR 25N95W. SEAS OF 6-8 FT WERE OBSERVED ACROSS E AND SE PORTIONS THIS MORNING AND NOW LIKELY 5-7 FT SE PORTIONS. HUGE DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS W ATLC WILL SHIFT NE THROUGH THU AND ALLOW FOR WEAK RIDGING AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WIND FLOW ACROSS BASIN THROUGH THEN BEFORE NEXT LOW BOMBS OUT ACROSS NW ATLC THU-FRI AND ANOTHER FRONT SWEEPS SE ACROSS BASIN. AGAIN STRONGEST PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN E OF BASIN AND ONLY 20 KT OF N WIND TO OCCUR ACROSS NE PORTIONS THU NIGHT BEFORE FALLING OFF FRI AND NEW HIGH BUILDS IN. PATTERN TO REPEAT AGAIN OVER WEEKEND AS NEXT BOMB EVOLVES NW ATLC. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS UNUSUALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS BASIN ATTM AS DEEP LAYERED LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS W ATLC AND DIVERGENT ASYMPTOTE NOW PREVAILS ACROSS CENTRAL CARIB NEAR 15N76W. SEAS WERE 3-5 FT E OF 70W THIS MORNING...LESS THAN 3 FT CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS...AND 3-5 FT N THROUGH NE OF GULF OF HONDURAS. FRONTAL TROUGH NOW EXTENDS FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NEAR NE COAST OF HONDURAS...FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONT FROM E CUBA TO N OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND REINFORCING FRONT APPROACHING YUCATAN CHANNEL. NW WINDS 15-20 KT GENERALLY PREVAILS BETWEEN FRONTS AND SEAS INCREASING NW PORTIONS TO 4-6 FT ATTM. BOUNDARIES WILL SWEEP EWD NEXT 48-72 HOURS AS PARENT LOW DEEPENS CONSIDERABLY AND SHIFTS NE...WITH BOUNDARIES NEARLY MERGING ACROSS NE CARIB AND MEANDERING THERE THU-FRI. JET ENERGY MOVING ACROSS GREATER ANTILLES TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT AS GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OCCURS AHEAD OF FRONTAL TROUGH...AND COULD YIELD HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. MODERATE NLY FLOW EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING W AND NW PORTIONS BEFORE WEAKENING WED NIGHT. SIMILAR EVOLUTION THEN EXPECTED THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT AS NEXT LOW DEEPENS OFF OF E COAST AND LIFTS OUT TO NE AND DRAGS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO HISPANIOLA FRI NIGHT...WITH NLY MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NNE FLOW W OF BOUNDARY...AND GFS NOW SHOWING SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT FOR SMALL AREA OF STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP OFF OF COLOMBIA FRI NIGHT...ALBEIT WITH STRONG N COMPONENT. RIDGE TO BUILD IN FROM W GULFMEX SAT AND STRENGTHEN PRES GRADIENT W HALF OF BASIN FOR 20 KT N-NE WINDS ALONG COAST OF NICARAGUA...INCREASING AND EXPANDING TO 20-25 KT SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...POTENTIALREACHING 30 KT ALONG COAST OF NICA. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF VERY LARGE LOW CURRENTLY UNDERWAY ACROSS W ATLC. ASSOCIATED TRIO OF BOUNDARIES TO SWEEP EWD AND NEARLY MERGE ACROSS NE CARIB THU AND THEN MEANDER THROUGH FRI BEFORE PATTERN REPEATS ITSELF FRI THROUGH WEEKEND AS NEXT BOMB STEPS UP TO THE LAUNCHING PAD OFF E COAST. BROAD AREA OF 20-25 KT CYCLONIC FLOW TO COVER THE AREA N OF 21N BY THIS EVENING...WITH SEAS BEGINNING TO INCREASE BEHIND FINAL FRONT ACROSS NW PORTIONS ATTM...WHERE 41010 NOW 9 FT. GALES EXPECTED TO MOVE SE INTO PORTIONS N OF 29N BEHIND FINAL OR SECOND FRONT THIS EVENING 03-06Z...WHILE SLY GALES FORECAST TO OCCUR AHEAD OF FRONTAL TROUGHS FAR S AS 25N. LATEST GFS JUST CAME IN WITH SURPRISE...INDICATING A SECONDARY MESO LOW SWINGING THROUGH W SEMICIRCLE OF BROADER LOW CIRCULATION...AND BRINGING STORM FORCE WINDS S OF 30N TONIGHT...A VERY RARE OCCURRENCE. ECMWF SHOWS A SIMILAR SCENARIO BUT WITH ONLY 40-45 KT WINDS. GFS ENSEMBLE PROBS ALSO SHOWING LOW PROBS FOR THIS TO OCCUR...AND ATTM WILL KEEP 45 KT IN FORECAST AND CONSIDER STORM WARNING FOR NEXT PACKAGE. VERY LARGE SWELL EVENT DEVELOPING FOR THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH SWELL FRONT TO HIT THE ATLC COASTS OF NE CARIB ISLANDS THU...FOLLOWED BY LARGE NNW SWELL ARRIVING THU NIGHT AND PEAKING THROUGH FRI. SEAS TO BUILD 16-25 FT N PORTIONS NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WAVES MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT...WITH ECWAVE SHOWING A STRONGER WNW PULSE INITIALLY THAN WW3...AND PEAKING AT 27 FT ALONG 31N WED MORNING. ONLY ABOUT 1 FT DIFFERENCE IN WW3 AND ECWAVE BY THE TIME SWELL HITS CARIB ISLANDS EARLY FRI WHICH HAS NOT BEEN THE CASE PREVIOUS EVENTS THIS YEAR...AND THUS CONFIDENCE HIGH. SUFFICIENT NLY SWELL TO DEVELOP OFF SE U.S. COAST AND WILL MAKE IT IN BEHIND THE BAHAMAS TO IMPACT SE FLORIDA COASTS WITH 4-6 FT OF SWELL S OF PBI...SO SEE YOU IN THE WATER. NEXT LOW OVER THE WEEKEND TO SEND SMALLER WAVE FIELD ACROSS THE AREA AS STRONG FLOW ACROSS W AND S PORTIONS OF THIS LOW WRAPS QUICKLY AROUND LOW FOR STRONG W COMPONENT FOR THIS EVENT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. .AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING WED. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.