000 AGXX40 KNHC 091904 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 204 PM EST MON FEB 9 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK LOW PRES OF 1012 MB IS LOCATED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N87W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. A WINDSAT PASS SHOWS THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED SWIRL OF MAINLY LOW CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT...AND INTO THE SW N ATLANTIC EARLY ON TUE. A RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REGION WITH MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK HIGH PRES OF 1016 MB NEAR 24N91W. SEAS ARE GENERALLY UNDER 4 FT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS BASED ON BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS. THE MOST RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOME INCREASE IN WINDS NEAR THE LOW CENTER AS THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS SLIGHTLY DROPPING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS LATER TODAY REACHING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR 25N88W BY THIS EVENING THEN PUSHING SE OF THE BASIN BY TUE. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW-N WINDS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT E OF 88W WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 6-7 FT...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH N-NE WINDS W OF 88W AND 3-5 FT SEAS BEHIND IT. HIGH PRES OVER THE SE UNITED STATES WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF REGION TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS BY THU EXTENDING FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO NE MEXICO LATE THU...FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO THU NIGHT...THEN PUSHING E-SE OF THE BASIN BY FRI EVENING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRES IN THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 18N85W. A RECENT WINDSAT PASS SHOWS THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS. SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO MEASURED MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA...WITH MAINLY MODERATE TRADES ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE GENERALLY UNDER 5 FT ACROSS THE BASIN. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT INTO TUE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATE TUE...THEN WILL WEAKEN AS IT STALLS FROM HISPANIOLA TO NE NICARAGUA BY WED... DISSIPATING THU. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 4-5 FT. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES ARE NOTED ACROSS THE REGION BY SCATTEROMETER DATA. WINDS WILL BECOME E-SE THROUGHOUT BY LATE TUE AS A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVE BY N OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO SE-S BY WED AS THE FEATURES MOVE CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY FRI. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR SE WATERS FROM 20N65W TO 19N70W. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE TODAY. MEANWHILE...A 1024 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 31N59W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 31N. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NEAR THE FAR NE PART AND W OF THE BAHAMAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE BASED ON SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE DATA. WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NW WATERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO ENTER THE REGION TONIGHT. ACCORDING TO BUOYS AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND ALTIMETER DATA...SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE E OF THE BAHAMAS AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT E TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE OFF THE SE GEORGIA COAST TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N77W TO 23N80W EARLY TUE MORNING...FROM 31N70W TO 20N72W TUE NIGHT...FROM 31N68W TO 20N68W BY EARLY WED MORNING...SHIFTING E OF THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW PRES SYSTEM. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING....AS WELL AS RIDGING BEHIND THE LOW AND FRONT IN THE SE U.S. WILL INDUCE GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE N WATERS E OF 77W TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. CURRENTLY...THE SREF PROBABILITIES OF GALE FORCE WINDS IS 30-40 PERCENT WHILE THE GEFS PROBABILITIES REACH 20 PERCENT. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF ZONES AMZ113 AND AMZ115. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 18-22 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. THEN...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WED AND THU. SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA E OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH HIGHEST SEAS REACHING 14-16 FT IN THE NE CORNER BY THU. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE GEORGIA COAST BY LATE THU...REACHING FROM 28N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY LATE FRI. ONCE AGAIN...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH WATERS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING TUE NIGHT INTO WED. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED INTO WED NIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.