000 AGXX40 KNHC 081804 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 104 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PRES 1017 MB IS IN THE SE/S CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N87W WITH AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM 27N87W TO THE LOW THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW AND A RECENT ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASS MEASURED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG E-SE WINDS IN ZONE GMZ021 (E GULF). MODERATE SE-S WINDS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH ALTIMETER PASSES REPORT SEAS OF 4-6 FT IN THE SE GULF AND MAINLY 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE. THE LOW AND TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO DRIFT TO THE N DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES. THAT FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF MON EVENING... KICKING THE LOW AND TROUGH TO THE E-SE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW-N WINDS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT E OF 88W WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 6-7 FT...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH N-NE WINDS W OF 88W AND 3-5 FT SEAS BEHIND IT. THE FRONT WILL COMPLETELY EXIT THE BASIN BY EARLY WED MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES. THAT HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NE GULF BY WED EVENING INTO THU AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN WATERS THU NIGHT... EXTENDING FROM 27N83W TO SW LOUISIANA LATE THU NIGHT...THEN PUSHING E-SE OF THE BASIN BY FRI EVENING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE E GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ELONGATED TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES IN THE SE-S CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WATERS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N83W OR THE FAR NE COAST OF HONDURAS. ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED FRESH E-SE WINDS N OF 20N E OF THE TROUGH TO THE ISLE OF YOUTH CUBA...WITH MODERATE NW WINDS W OF THE TROUGH INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO MEASURED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE A LOCALLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS PRESENT...WITH MAINLY MODERATE TRADES ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE 3-5 FT BASIN-WIDE...EXCEPT 1-3 FT IN E CARIBBEAN E OF 64W. THE TROUGHING WILL LINGER IN THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON AFTERNOON...THEN WILL GET PUSHED BACK TO THE E-SE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THAT COLD FRONT WILL BREACH THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS TUE AFTERNOON...EXTENDING FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO ACROSS JAMAICA TO ALONG 18N WED MORNING... THEN WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM HAITI TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS WED EVENING THROUGH EARLY THU. MEANWHILE THE TROUGHING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TO THE E-SE EVENTUALLY EXTENDING FROM THE ANEGADA PASSAGE TO THE A-B-C ISLANDS BY THU MORNING...MOVING E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THU EVENING ALLOWING FOR MODERATE N-NE FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN FRI NIGHT WHILE SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT BASIN-WIDE. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES... LOCALLY VARYING FROM NE-E TO E-SE...AND 4-6 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MON. WINDS WILL BECOME E-SE THROUGHOUT BY LATE MON NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVE BY N OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO SE-S BY WED MORNING AS THE FEATURES MOVE CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL ENTER THE FAR NW CORNER OF ZONE AMZ025/LEEWARD ISLANDS BY THU MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NW-N BEHIND IT...THEN WILL STALL FROM 19N57W TO 16.5N62W BY FRI MORNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN 4-6 FT THROUGHOUT...HOWEVER NW-N SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE NW CORNER OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-9 FT N OF 18N BY LATE FRI. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 23N65W TO THE N COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED LINGERING FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS S OF 22N W OF 70W INCLUDING THE APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. MEANWHILE 1025 MB HIGH PRES IS POSITIONED NEAR 31N70W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 31N. GENTLE WINDS ARE NEAR THE HIGH WITH MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE REPORTED BY AREA BUOYS...SHIPS AND ALTIMETER DATA TO BE 2-4 FT IN THE NW PORTION...AND 4-7 FT ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT 7-9 FT S OF 25N E OF THE BAHAMAS. THE HIGH WILL RETREAT TO THE NE-E TONIGHT AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES THE NW PORTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES. THAT FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW WATERS BY EARLY TUE 31N73W TO THE N CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA TUE EVENING...THEN QUICKLY FROM 31N69W TO HISPANIOLA WED EVENING...THEN EXITING THE WATERS W OF 65W THU. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRES CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL EJECT OFF TO THE NE INTO THE SW N ATLC WATERS BY THU MORNING WITH ANOTHER LOW CENTER FORMING ALONG THE COLD FRONT ITSELF NEAR 32N77W AT THE SAME TIME. THESE LOWS ARE THEN FORECAST TO MERGE N OF THE AREA WHILE INTENSIFYING. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE COMPLEX LOW AND CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING....AS WELL AS RIDGING BEHIND THE LOW AND FRONT IN THE U.S. LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL INDUCE FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE SW N ATLC BY TUE NIGHT WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8-14 FT BY WED MORNING OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT DROPS BACK TO THE E-SE BY LATE WED AND GALE FORCE NW-N WINDS MAY WRAP AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF IT POTENTIALLY CLIPPING NE ZONE AMZ115...WHICH IS SW OF BERMUDA... WED NIGHT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS THEN PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLC HIGH SEAS AREA BEYOND LATE WED NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY IMPROVE BY LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU FROM THE WESTERN PORTIONS PROGRESSING TO THE E THROUGH THE DAY THU. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY APPROACH THE NW AREA THU EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.