000 AGXX40 KNHC 071811 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 111 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES EXTENDS ALONG 30N WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED IN THE SE GULF ALONG 87W. LATEST OBSERVATIONS REPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT IN THE SE GULF WHERE FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS ARE OCCURRING NW-N OF CUBA INCLUDING IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE SEAS ARE UP TO 8 FT. THE TROUGH WILL MEANDER IN THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MON MORNING WHILE FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE BASIN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS MON MORNING WITH THE TROUGH BEING PUSHED TO THE SE AHEAD OF IT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE W CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N95W LATE MON NIGHT MOVING E-SE OF THE GULF TUE MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT E OF 90W BUILDING SEAS TO UP TO 8 FT THROUGH TUE MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO THE SE UNITED STATES WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE RETURN FLOW AND 2-4 FT SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN BY WED MORNING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP S INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THU NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT FOR THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE SE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. MEANWHILE A SHEAR LINE IS DISSIPATING FROM EASTERN CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS WITH A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWING FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF CUBA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE-E WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG WITH MAINLY 3-5 FT SEAS. WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG NEAR THE IMMEDIATE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUN NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON MORNING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THEN. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MON...PUSHING THE TROUGH TO THE E IF NOT MERGING WITH IT BY MON NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CUBA TO NORTHERN BELIZE TUE EVENING...THEN WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO ACROSS HISPANIOLA BACK TO NEAR THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW-N BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE INCREASING TO MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS. BY THU MORNING...MODERATE N-NE WINDS WILL COVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN ALONG WITH 2-4 FT SEAS... WITH THESE CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THU NIGHT. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE E-SE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS PREVAIL AROUND CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH WED MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA WED WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SE-S IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC AHEAD OF THE FRONT WED INTO EARLY THU WITH THE ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY STALLING ALONG 17N BY THU EVENING. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED FROM NEAR 23N65W TO THE NE TIP OF CUBA AND IS BECOMING MORE SHEAR LINE-LIKE. MEANWHILE HIGH PRES IS LOCATED TO THE NW NEAR 31N78W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM E-W ALONG 30N. RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES SAMPLED FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ELSEWHERE EXCEPT GENTLE IN THE FAR NW PORTION NEAR THE HIGH. SEAS ARE RUNNING 8-11 FT ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE BASIN WHICH IS 2-3 FT HIGHER THAN THE LATEST MWW3 GUIDANCE. SEAS ARE 4-7 FT ELSEWHERE. THE FRONT/SHEAR LINE WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS TO BE JUST S OF BERMUDA BY SUN EVENING WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE E AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NW PORTION...WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ENTERING BY EARLY MON. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY EXTEND FROM 31N73W TO N CENTRAL CUBA TUE MORNING...FROM BERMUDA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TUE EVENING... FROM 31N60W TO THE N CENTRAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WED MORNING... PUSHING SE OF 65W BY THU MORNING. PARENT LOW PRES WILL DEEPEN N OF THE AREA WHILE DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THESE CONDITIONS CURRENTLY APPEAR TO REMAIN JUST E OF 65W AND E OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS ZONES. THE LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO DROP BACK TO THE SE BY WED MORNING WHICH WOULD BRING AT LEAST 40 KT W-NW WINDS IN AROUND BEHIND IT INTO AMZ115 BY WED MORNING...PUSHING E OF 65W BY WED EVENING. LARGE SEAS WOULD ALSO BUILD INTO AMZ115 DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS AND A LONG FETCH...UP TO 20 FT NEAR 31N65W WED NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL FINALLY BUILD IN FROM THE NW THU MORNING WITH IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THU AFTERNOON BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NW PORTION. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.