000 AGXX40 KNHC 061933 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 233 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. 12 UTC MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST BUOYS OBSERVATIONS AND PLATFORMS ARE REPORTING NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT IN THE SW GULF...AND NE-E WINDS OF 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NE 20-25 KT OVER THE FAR SE GULF S OF 23N E OF 86W INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS ARE REPORTING SEAS OF 5-7 FT SE OF A LINE FROM 28N85W TO 21N97W...EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 7-10 FT NEAR THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND VICINITY YUCATAN CHANNEL AS NOTED IN EARLIER SHIP OBSERVATIONS. THE WAVEHEIGHT GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED 2 FT UPWARD FROM THE MWW3 GUIDANCE OVER THIS PORTION OF THE GULF THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHIP OBSERVATIONS THERE. THE SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICT A 1030 MB HIGH OVER E CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING SSE TO ALONG THE EASTERN PART OF MEXICO AND TO NEAR 17N95W. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE HIGH PRES CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA WILL SHIFT E OF THE GULF SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN ALLOWING FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE FAR NW GULF AND N CENTRAL GULF EARLY ON MON...AND THE N GULF BY MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN FROM WESTERN CUBA TO FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS BY TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH WED WITH E-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT SETTING UP W OF 87W...AND NE TO E WINDS 10-15 KT E OF 87W. BY WED...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE THROUGHOUT...WITH THE HIGHEST OF THESE OVER THE SE PORTION. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. 12 UTC MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. WITH THE ATLC COLD FRONT MAKING HEADWAY ACROSS WESTERN ATLC THIS AFTERNOON...THE INDIRECT IMPACT ON THE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN HAS BEEN TO WEAKEN. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE EARLIER OBSERVED FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TO DIMINISH SOME IN SIZE. THESE TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUN BEFORE DIMINISHING IN SPEEDS. THE AFOREMENTIONED ATLC COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM E CENTRAL CUBA SW TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 1452 UTC THIS MORNING DEPICTED N-NE 20-25 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. BUOY 42056 AT 20N85W SIMILARLY REPORTED THESE SAME WINDS DURING THE MORNING. A RECENT OBSERVATION FROM SHIP "DFCX2" JUST NE OF COZUMEL INDICATE NE WINDS OF 25 KT WITH SEAS OF 10 FT. THIS MORNING TWO SHIPS IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL REPORTED NE 25-30 KT WINDS WITH COMBINED WAVEHEIGHTS OF 10 FT. SEAS ELSEWHERE W OF 84W ARE IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE. E OF 84W...SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 6-8 FT S OF 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W...AND LOWER SEAS OF 3-4 FT N OF ABOUT 15N AND E OF 67W. THE PRESENT COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AND WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM EASTERN CUBA SW TO 20N81W...AND TRANSITION TO A SHEAR LINE TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY ON SAT. THE FRONT AND WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE LATER ON SAT AND INTO SUN WITH A WEAK NW TO SE TROUGH LINGERING IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN MON AFTERNOON AND MON NIGHT...REACH FROM EASTERN CUBA TO GULF OF HONDURAS MON NIGHT AND WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE NICARAGUA TUE...AND AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT OVER FAR NE CARIBBEAN W TO NW ACROSS THE GRATER ANTILLES WED. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SEWD OVER THE NW AND N CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BASIN WITH THE RESULTING PRES GRADIENT USHERING IN N WINDS OF AROUND 20 KT ACROSS THOSE AREAS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. 12 UTC MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PRELIMINARY 18 UTC ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR 27N65W SW TO 23N74W...AND TO E CENTRAL CUBA. HIGH PRES IS BUILDING EASTWARD NEAR 31N IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. BOTH MORNING ASCAT DATA AND SHIP/BUOY DATA SHOW N WINDS OF 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WINDS NE AT 15-20 KT W OF 75W ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRES. E OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE SW 20-25 KT WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT. THE OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8-12 FT W OF THE FRONT N OF 28N...WITH A SMALL POCKET OF HIGHER SEAS OF 9-14 FT IN NW N OF 28N BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 75W. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE E OF THE BAHAMAS MAINLY ATTRIBUTED TO NE SWELLS...AND 2-3 FT SW OF THE BAHAMAS EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 5-8 FT W OF 79W INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 26N65W TO 23N71W AND STATIONARY TO EASTERN CUBA BY THIS EVENING...AND BECOME WEAKENING STATIONARY FROM NEAR 23N65W TO EASTERN CUBA BY EARLY ON SAT. THE FRONT WILL THEN TRANSITION TO A SHEAR LINE DURING THE REMAINDER OF SAT AND INTO EARLY SUN BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE SUN. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG 31N SAT THROUGH SUN BEFORE SHIFTING TO JUST NE OF OF 65W SUN NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES THE SE U.S. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE GEORGIA COAST LATE MON...REACH FROM NEAR 31N69W TO NEAR WINDWARD PASSAGE BY TUE NIGHT...AND OVER THE SE PORTION. THE ECMWF AND UKMET ARE QUITE STRONG...ALBIT HIGHER THAN THE GFS...WITH WINDS BOTH E AND W OF THIS NEXT FRONT TUE AND WED SUGGESTING POSSIBLE WINDS OF GALE FORCE IN SLY FLOW E OF THE FRONT IN THE NORTHERN WATERS OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN AND W-NW GALE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT N OF ABOUT 27N E OF 73W. THE LATEST GFS MEAN ENSEMBLE 34 KT WINDS PROBABILITIES ARE RATHER LOW FOR TUE AND WED...BUT WILL MONITOR FUTURE TRENDS TO SEE IF THEY INCREASE SUGGESTING THAT WINDS WILL IN FACT REACH GALE FORCE TUE THROUGH WED. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN DOES DEPICT THAT LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGHING WILL BE VERY PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK LIKELY TO SUPPORT A STRONGER SURFACE COLD FRONT THAN SEEN RECENTLY. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.