000 AGXX40 KNHC 050841 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 341 AM EST THU FEB 5 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS GALE CENTER HAS ACCELERATED E-NE AND WEAKENED PAST 6-12 HOURS...AND GALE WARNING NO LONGER IN EFFECT. ECMWF SCORED VERY WELL ON THIS LOW YESTERDAY...FROM SEVERAL DAYS OUT. EARLY EVENING ALTIMETER PASS STILL SHOWED SEAS 10-11 FT NEAR 28N90W LOCATED IN NARROW BAND N OF FRONTAL ZONE. LOW PRES CENTER NOW NEAR 28.5N85W 1011 MB WITH SFC TROUGH-OLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NEW FRONT EXTENDING W-SW FROM LOW TO NEAR 24N93W THEN NEARLY S OF ISTHMUS TEHUANTEPEC. OBS SUGGEST THAT WIND N OF LOW AND FRONTAL ZONE THERE HAS DROPPED TO 20-25 KT. LINE OF TRW+ OCCURRING E OF LOW AND ALONG AND AHEAD OF TROUGH AND WILL SHIFT NE ACROSS ERN WATERS AND FLORIDA TODAY. THE LOW AND FRONT WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE NE TODAY...WITH LLVL VORT ASSOC WITH LOW TO BECOME SHEARED AND STRETCHED AS IT CROSSES FLORIDA THIS MORNING AND MOVES INTO SW N ATLC. STRONG HIGH PRES ACROSS MO VALLEY WILL FORCE TRAILING COLD FRONT SSE AND PRODUCE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BEHIND FRONT...MAINLY E PORTIONS...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NLY FLOW BEHIND FRONT...EXPECTED TO REACH FROM STRAITS OF FL TO NW YUCATAN COAST BY 00Z THEN CLEAR THE AREA TO THE SE OVERNIGHT. THIS HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND BECOMING SITUATED OVER COASTAL GEORGIA FRI EVENING BEFORE IT SLIDES OFF TO THE E SAT THROUGH SUN ALLOWING FOR MODERATE FLOW ACROSS ALL BUT SE PORTIONS OF THE GULF. MEANWHILE THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL SLIP SE OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE BACK TO THE NW SAT EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN LINGER IN THE S CENTRAL GULF SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF BY LATE MON AFTERNOON HELPING TO PUSH THIS REMNANT BOUNDARY BACK TO THE SE-S THROUGH MON NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS STRONG TRADES CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS S OF 16N ATTM WITH NOCTURNAL MAX PULSING TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AND EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE AROUND 12Z. FRESH TRADES PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS N CENTRAL PORTIONS WITH MODERATE WINDS REMAINDER OF BASIN. LATE AFTERNOON ALTIMETER PASS ALONG 77-78W SHOWED LARGE AREA OF 8 FT SEAS FROM 16.5N TO THE MOUTH OF GULF OF ARABA...WITH PEAK SEAS 13-14 FT BETWEEN 11N AND 12.5N...AND VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH OUR NWPS INFLUENCED GRIDS. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL WEAKENTODAY AS W ATLC HIGH SHIFTS E AHEAD OF GULFMEX SYSTEM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE TRADES TO GENERALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE BASIN. TRADES WILL CONTINUE FRESH TO STRONG IN THE FAR S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN MORNING...THEN WILL ALSO DIMINISH AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS FURTHER. MEANWHILE THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE GUFMEX LOW WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS EVENING WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND 8-9 FT SEAS BUILDING JUST BEHIND IT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SE THROUGH FRI AND STALL FROM E CENTRAL CUBA ARCHING CYCLONICALLY TO N CENTRAL HONDURAS FRI MORNING THROUGH SAT...THEN WILL VERY SLOWLY RETROGRADE BACK TO THE W-NW LATE SUN THROUGH MON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO MON NIGHT WHICH WILL PUSH OR MERGE WITH THE FRONTAL REMNANTS THROUGH MON NIGHT. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS OF 5-8 FT (HIGHEST S OF 14N) WILL SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FT SAT THROUGH MON NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS NNE ALONG THE N FL-GA COASTS WHILE A WARM FRONT EXTENDS GUFMEX LOW IN NE GULF EWD ACROSS N CENTRAL FLORIDA. SLY FLOW IS CURRENTLY FRESHENING FROM THE NW BAHAMAS AND SE FL UP THE COAST AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW. ELSEWHERE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR 23N60W TO 24N72W WITH W PORTION LIFTING N AS A WEAK WARM FRONT. ATLC RIDGE DOMINATING REGION EXTENDS FROM HIGH NE OF BERMUDA TO SE FL AND IS SHIFTING E-NE WITH FLOW EXPECTED TO VEER SLIGHTLY ACROSS SE PORTIONS TODAY. GUFMEX LOW PRES WILL MOVE NE ACROSS FLORIDA THIS MORNING WITH LLVL VORT INVOF OF LOW TO BECOME SHEARED AND STRETCHED...AND GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING DIFFERING POSITIONS OF SFC LOWS AT THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE NW PORTIONS TODAY. SWLY GALES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...LIKELY IN A REASONABLY NARROW BAND WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE FRONT. MODELS INDICATE GALES TO LIFT NE OUT OF OUR HSF WATERS FRI AND WILL CLEAR NE OFF ZONES BY 06Z TONIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND FRONT WILL FORCE STRONG NLY WINDS ACROSS NW PORTIONS OVERNIGHT THEN BEGIN TO VEER N TO NE AND DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT ON FRI. FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH FROM 25N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY FRI EVENING THEN BEGIN TO STALL N OF GREATER ANTILLES SAT EVENING FROM 21.5N65W THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION MON NIGHT AND SWEEP QUICKLY SE...EXTENDING25.5N65W TO E CENTRAL CUBA BY TUE EVENING...WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACCOMPANYING IT BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND IT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING TODAY. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING TODAY. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.