000 AGXX40 KNHC 040846 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 346 AM EST WED FEB 4 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED PAST 12 HOURS ACROSS SW CARIB AND IS DRIFTING NWD...AND CURRENTLY SUGGESTED BY STLT IMAGERY AND RECENT ASCAT PASS NEAR 24N96W...ESTIMATED AT 1014 MB. DEVELOPING WARM FRONT EXTENDS NEARLY EWD FROM LOW...AND OBS ACROSS NW GULF INDICATED MVFR VSBYS IN AREAS OF FOG...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT STILL PREFER AN ECMWF-LIKE SOLUTION...ALBEIT A COMPROMISE LOW POSN OF THE UKMET WAS USED IN SHORT TERM. MODELS SUGGEST ELONGATED LLVL VORT STRONG OUT ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT LIFTS N TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH LLVL VORT THEN SHEARED OUT QUICKLY TO THE ENE AND ACROSS FLORIDA TONIGHT. FOG AND CNVTN EXPECTED TO PERSIST N OF LOW AND FRONT AS IT SHIFT NE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH ELONGATED BAND OF 20-25 KT EXPECTED TO DAM UP ALONG FRONT AND AROUND LOW TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SMALL AREAS TO 30 KT. REINFORCING HIGH PRES THEN PUSHES FRONTAL BOUNDARY SE ACROSS BASIN THU...REACHING STRAITS OF FL TO NW YUCATAN BY THU EVENING AND THEN SE OF AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRI. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE FLOW BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BUILD SEAS 7-9 FT ACROSS SRN PORTIONS LATE THU AND THU NIGHT BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO DIMINISH FRI THROUGH SAT AS MODERATE RIDGING PREVAIL. PRES GRADIENT N OF LINGERING FRONT IN NW CARIB WILL MAINTAIN ENE FLOW TO 25 KT THROUGH STRAITS FRI AND SAT FOR SEAS 6-8 FT AGAINST CURRENT THERE...AND HAVE COPIED ON KEY AND MFL SWH GRIDS DURING THIS PERIOD. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS FRESH TO STRONG TRADES CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL CARIB ATTM WITH RECENT PARTIAL ASCAT PASS AIDING IN IDENTIFYING WRN PERIPHERY OF DEVELOPING NOCTURNAL GALES OFF OF COLOMBIA. RECENT ALTIMETER PASS ALONG PASSED THROUGH DEVELOPING GALE AREA AND SUGGEST MAX SEAS AROUND 13 FT OFF OF COLOMBIA. HIGH PRES NOW EXITING OFF OF NC COAST AND STILL DUE N OF CENTRAL CARIB...AND NOCTURNAL GALES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING THEN WILL PULSE AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z BEFORE PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN THU NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GULFMEX COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW PORTIONS EARLY FRI WITH PRE FRONTAL TROUGH AND NLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT INITIALLY. FRONT TO SHIFT SE AND REACH FRONT CENTRAL CUBA ARCHING CYCLONICALLY TO N CENTRAL COAST OF HONDURAS BY EARLY SAT MORNING. N TO NNE FLOW AROUND 20 KT EXPECTED TO SPILL SWD DOWN YUCATAN COAST AND INTO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF GULF OF HONDURAS FRI...LIKELY GENERATING SEAS 5-8 FT IN NON PROTECTED AREAS. AS FRONT STALLS SAT...HIGH TO THE NE ACROSS SW N ATLC WILL SHIFT EWD WITH NARROW RIDGE AND PRES GRAD WILL RELAX THROUGH SUN NIGHT NW PORTIONS...WITH FRONT WASHING OUT AND DRIFTING N. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS WEAKENING COLD FRONT FROM 31N57W NE COAST OF CUBA...WITH FAR W PORTION OF BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO TRANSITION TO SHEARLINE. FRONT WILL CONTINUE SE AND LAY DOWN ALONG ABOUT 24N ACROSS SE SECTIONS TONIGHT AS A SHEARLINE THEN START TO LIFT N THU AS GULFMEX FRONT AND LOW SHIFT INTO NW PORTIONS. THIS FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LLVL VORT SHIFTING QUICKLY NE ACROSS FLORIDA TONIGHT AND ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND EXIT TO THE NE THU AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO PAST SEVERAL RUNS AND PRESENTLY PREFER A ECMWF-GFS COMPROMISE...WITH SWLY FLOW 20-30 KT AHEAD OF FRONT THU...WITH POTENTIAL FOR NEAR GALES NEAR STRONG CONVECTION...LIFTING NE OF AREA LATE THU NIGHT. SREF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE PROBS INDICATE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR GALES ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKELY INDUCED BY LLVL VORT OR LOW RACING ALONG FRONT. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS THERE TO AROUND 30 KT AND WE COULD GO WITH GALES ACROSS N PORTIONS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. FRONT TO MOVE SE ACROSS AREA THU AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND REACH FROM NEAR 30N65W TO NW CUBA FRI MORNING THEN STALL FROM NEAR 23N65W TO ERN CUBA SAT. STRONG NLY FLOW BEHIND FRONT THU AND THU NIGHT EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 30 KT ACROSS LOCAL WATERS...WITH STRONG RIDGE SHIFTING E OFF U.S. E COAST FRI THOUGH SAT TO PRODUCE GRADUALLY VEERING FLOW BEHIND FRONT. ELONGATED RIDGE ALONG 30N WILL ESTABLISH SUN TO MAINTAIN SHEARLINE ACROSS SE PORTIONS WITH STRONG ENE TRADES TO THE N AND MODERATE SE TO S WINDS W SECTIONS THROUGH MON. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .AMZ039...SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N INCLUDING APPROACHES TO PANAMA CANAL... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.