000 AGXX40 KNHC 030907 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 407 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS COLD FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE SE GULF FROM STRAITS TO NEAR 22.5N90W THEN WRAPS NEARLY INTO OR AROUND A DEVELOPING SFC LOW 1016 MB NEAR 21N95W WITH FRONT THEN CONTINUING SE TO NEAR 18.5N92W AND ALLOWING NLY FLOW TO CROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND EXIT INTO THE PACIFIC. NWLY FLOW SPILLING DOWN MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN LOW AND FRONT AND NARROW RIDGING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO HIGHLANDS CONTINUES TO INDUCE GALE FORCE WINDS IN SMALL AREA OFF OF VERACRUZ...WHERE GFS SUGGESTS BETWEEN 19N- 21N. ALTHOUGH VERACRUZ HARBOR AND ISLA DE SACRIFICIO OBS HAVE HOVERED JUST BELOW GALE FORCE WINDS SINCE THIS AFTERNOON...A 04Z ASCAT PASS HIT THIS AREA AND DEPICTED NW GALES FROM ABOUT 19-21N. AN AREA OF 10 FT PLUS SEAS WRAPS CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE LOW FROM THE NE QUAD THROUGH THE GALE AREA OFFSHORE OF VERA CRUZ. GALES ARE EXPECTED TO END BY AROUND 12Z THERE AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND THE LOW STARTS TO DRIFT NWD AND LOOSES SOME OF THE OROGRAPHIC FORCING S OF 21N. ELSEWHERE...RECENT OBS AND O2Z ASCAT PASS SHOW FRESH TO STRONG NELY FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN N OF THE FRONT...INCREASING TO NEAR 25 KT OF FRONT TO 24N AND W OF 90W EXTENDING WWD AROUND FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW. COMPLEX SCENARIO SETTING UP ACROSS THE BASIN NEXT 36-48 HRS AS DEVELOPING SFC LOW NEAR 21N95W DRIFTS NWD TODAY THEN SHIFT ENE WED AND WED NIGHT AND ACCELERATES NE ACROSS FL AND INTO W ATLC EARLY THU...DRAGGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH IT ALL THE WHILE. MODELS ARE GRADUALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ENSEMBLE MEANS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT BEYOND 24 HRS TO THE ECMWF THAN GFS...AND THUS FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARD FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH UKMET A VERY REASONABLE COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES. PRESENTLY SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENESIS IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT NARROW ZONE OF 25 KT WINDS AT THE LEAST IS EXPECTED N OF LOW AND WARM SECTOR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NE SECTIONS WED AND WED NIGHT AS LOW SHIFTS ACROSS THE BASIN. WINDS TO 30 KT CERTAINLY POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY NEAR CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT...BUT DO NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE YET TO HIGHER. LOW EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26.5N90.5W BY 00Z THU WITH LLVL VORT THEN SHEAR OUT RAPIDLY TO THE NE. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH QUICKLY SE ACROSS THE BASIN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW THU...REACHING FROM NEAR MIA TO NW COAST OF YUCATAN AND SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY 00Z FRI...WITH NLY WINDS 20-25 KT AND SMALL AREAS TO 30 KT BEHIND FRONT...MAINLY E OF 90W. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BASIN THROUGH THU AS MIGRATORY HIGHS PASS BY ALONG ABOUT 35N...AND COMBINE WITH MODESTLY LOW PRES ACROSS COLOMBIA. NOCTURNAL PULSING OF WINDS OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GALES IN THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE HIGH ACROSS THE W ATLC YDA HAS SHIFTED EWD PAST 24 HOURS AND LLVL WINDS ALONG AND N OF OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR NE CARIBBEAN HAVE BEGUN TO VEER...AND PRES GRADIENT HAS RELAXED N OF BOUNDARY WITH TRADES DROPPING OFF TO 15-20 KT ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND NE CARIB. NNW SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE REGIONAL ATLC CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND NE CARIB PASSAGES ATTM. WW3 STILL ABOUT 2 FT LOW ACROSS THIS REGION...WHILE ECWAVE LOOKS TO VERIFY WELL...AND OUR NWPS IMPROVED ON WW3. SWELL WILL VEER MORE NLY TODAY AND BEGIN TO SLOWLY FADE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. NW ATLC FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH STRAITS OF FL AND ACROSS N PORTIONS OF YUCATAN CHANNEL AND WILL MEANDER THERE TODAY BEFORE LIFTING N AS LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS W GULF. TRADES WILL FRESHEN ACROSS THE NW CARIB TONIGHT INTO WED AS HIGH PRES BEHIND ATLC COLD FRONT SHIFT DUE N OF THAT AREA...AND BUILDS INTO W ATLC. PRES GRADIENT AND TRADES TO THEN DIMINISH THU AS HIGH SHIFT QUICKLY NE INTO CENTRAL ATLC AHEAD OF STRONG W ATLC FRONTAL SYSTEM. COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO NW CARIB EARLY FRI...REACHING FROM CENTRAL CUBA ARCHING W THEN SW INTO FAR WRN GULF OF HONDURAS BY SAT MORNING. PRES GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MODEST ACROSS NW PORTIONS...AND FRESH N TO NE WINDS EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATE SPOTS TO 25 KT. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY THU THROUGH EARLY SAT ELSEWHERE IN ADVANCE OF THIS ATLC FRONT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. LARGE NW TO N SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE S AND SE ACROSS THE WATERS E OF 72W THIS MORNING...WITH BUOY OBS AND RECENT ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATING WW3 STILL ABOUT 2 FT LOW ACROSS SE PART. PEAK OF SWELL ENERGY NOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WHERE SEAS ARE 10-13 FT N OF 17N. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED N OF SHEAR LINE ALONG 20N AS HIGH IS RETREATING OFF TO THE E. NEXT FRONT ACROSS W ATLC NOW EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N68W TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA...WITH SIGNIFICANT AREA OF SW GALES E OF FRONT...OCCURRING N OF 29N EXTENDING ALMOST 360 NM E OF FRONT...AND SMALL SHRINKING AREA OF NW TO W GALES DIRECTLY BEHIND FRONT AND N OF 30N. FRONT TO CONTINUE EWD TDA...HANGING UP ACROSS NW CUBA THIS EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY BECOMING STRUNG OUT ALONG 24N BY WED EVENING AS LOW BEGINS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN GULF OF MEXICO. GALES EXPECTED TO END W OF FRONT BY 12Z TDA AND E OF FRONT BY 18Z...WITH BRIEF PULSE OF NW SWELL MOVING THROUGH E HALF OF AREA WATERS NEXT FEW DAYS. NEXT STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SINK SE INTO NW WATERS EARLY THU WITH LOW PRES FROM GULF SHIFTING RAPIDLY NE ALONG BOUNDARY AND INTO W ATLC THU MORNING AND STRONG NLY FLOW BUILDING BEHIND SINKING FRONT THU EVENING THROUGH FRI. STILL SOME MODEST DIFFERENCES IN MODELS WITH THIS LOW AND FRONT AND HAVE NUDGED FRONTAL POSITIONS MORE IN LINE WITH ENSEMBLE MEANS...WITH FRONT REACHING FROM NEAR BERMUDA THROUGH CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA FRI MORNING THEN STALLING FROM NEAR 25N60W TO WINDWARD PASSAGE SAT MORNING. PRESENTLY N TO NW GALES LOOK TO STAY N OF LOCAL AREA BUT MAY SPREAD SWD TO NEAR 20N FRI. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO WED. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.