000 AGXX40 KNHC 011759 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1259 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MED CONFIDENCE. A 150 NM WIDE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE FL STRAITS NW TO THE LA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO RACE NE THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY SET OFF A FEW TSTMS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE WEATHER GRIDS. ALSO EXPECT SE 20-25 KT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NE GULF AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. MODERATE RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND W GULF TO THE SW OF THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF THE TX COAST THIS EVENING. THE E PORTION OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL RACE SE THROUGH THE FL STRAITS ON MON NIGHT WHILE LEAVING A NW-SE ORIENTATED REMNANT FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF WATERS ON MON NIGHT AND TUE. THIS REMNANT TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE ON TUE NIGHT...WITH LATEST BLEND OF GUIDANCE DEVELOPING A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 24N96W AROUND SUNRISE ON WED. THE OFFICIAL GRIDS WILL USE A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WHICH TRACKS THE LOW ENE PASSING S OF THE MS DELTA ON WED NIGHT AND MOVING INLAND NEAR CEDAR KEY FL ON THU EVENING...WHILE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TO ITS S AND THROUGH THE FL STRAITS ON THU NIGHT. EXPECT N-NE 20-30 KT FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT WITH 30- 35 KT MINIMAL WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO ON MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAY SEE GALE WARNING REPOSTED FURTHER N ACROSS OFFSHORE DOMAIN MAINLY DUE TO FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. SE 15-20 KT RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF TO THE E OF THE REMNANT TROUGH ON TUE NIGHT...WITH EMBEDDED PATCHES OF 20-25 KT TO THE NE-E OF THE DEVELOPING LOW BRIEFLY ON WED. EXPECT N15-20 KT WINDS W OF THE LOW AND FRONT EARLY THU NIGHT...INCREASING TO 20-25 KT LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY OVERCAST LOW- MID CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THUS INTRODUCED SHOWERS INTO THE WEATHER GRIDS. THE TAIL END OF ANOTHER FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALSO PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS AND TO THE NE OF THE LEEWARDS. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT NE-E 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THEN BECOMING E-SE AT 10-15 KT TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVING AT THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON MON EVENING. EXPECT N-NE 10-15 KT CONDITIONS N OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT ON MON NIGHT INTO TUE...THEN INCREASING TO NE- E 15-20 KT ON TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED AFTERNOON...THEN RELAXING TO SE 10-15 KT WED NIGHT AND FURTHER RELAXING TO 5-10 KT ON THU AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON THU NIGHT. THIS LATE WEEK FRONT WILL BE STRONGER WITH POST-FRONTAL NLY WINDS AT 20-25 KT ON FRI. NE-E 20-30 KT WINDS WITH 9-12 FT SEAS EXPECTED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATER TONIGHT INCREASING THE NE FLOW TO 30- 35 KT/SEAS 10-13 FT WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM OF THE COAST. EXPECT THIS NOCTURNAL GALE PATTERN TO DEVELOP EACH NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE EXTENT OF NEAR GALE AND MINIMAL GALE WINDS WILL EXPAND OUT TO 180 NM FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ON MON THROUGH WED NIGHTS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 16 KT. NE-E 15-20 KT TRADES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS WITH SOME MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS FOR DAY 1. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A PAIR OF WEAKENING COLD FRONTS ARE KICKING OFF SHOWERS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ZONES. NW 20-25 KT POST-FRONTAL WINDS CONTINUE N OF 26N BETWEEN 60-55W BUT ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT E OF THE 55W TONIGHT. MWW3 HEIGHTS...AND EVEN NWPS SEA HEIGHTS...ARE 3-4 FT LOWER THAN CURRENT OBS AND ALTIMETER DATA ACROSS THE SUB- TROPICAL WATERS E OF 76W...THUS MANUALLY TWEAKED SEA HEIGHTS UP A FEW FT FOR FIRST 18 HOURS. A POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT SE INTO THE N-CENTRAL FORECAST WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND PASS S OF BERMUDA TONIGHT WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO CENTRAL FL. SOUTHERLY FLOW N OF THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT THIS EVENING...AND FURTHER INCREASE TO A 30-35 KT MINIMAL GALE N OF 30N W OF 77W LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE ON MON BOTH E AND W OF A COLD FRONT. THE POST FRONTAL NW FLOW WILL DIMINISH TO 20-30 KT EARLY MON NIGHT...BUT THE SOUTHWESTERLY GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE E OF THE FRONT TILL LATE MON NIGHT. OTHERWISE A SW-W-NW 20-30 KT WIND SHIFT EXPECTED N OF 27N ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA ON MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS ON THU WITH NLY GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE EXTREME NW WATERS ON FRI. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING MON. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING MON NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. GALE WARNING MON NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING MON INTO MON NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING MON INTO MON NIGHT. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING MON NIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.