000 AGXX40 KNHC 261934 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 234 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS NEW COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT QUICKLY ACROSS THE GULF TODAY...NOW CLEARLY EXTENDING FROM FL KEYS ARCHING W-SW TO NEAR 23.5N96W. MORNING SHIP AND RIG OBS SUGGESTED WINDS AROUND 25 KT WITH GUSTS IN LOW 30S ACROSS CENTRAL AND E PORTIONS BEHIND FRONT...WHILE LARGE AREA OF SEAS 12 FT AND GREATER HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING FROM NE PORTIONS WWD TO 42001...WHICH BRIEFLY ROSE TO 12 FT AT 14Z...WHILE 42003 AND 42099 NOW AT 12 FT. NWPS OUTPUT CLOSEST OF WAVE MODELS TO THIS SOLUTION BUT STILL DID NOT CAPTURE W EXTEND OF THESE 12 FT SEAS...WHILE WW3 WAS 1-4 FT LOW. FRONT TO CONTINUE QUICKLY SE ACROSS FL STRAITS AND REMAINDER OF BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH SFC HIGH FORECAST TO SHIFT SE AND INTO WRN PORTIONS OF GULF ALONG 95-96W FOR NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHILE RESIDUAL NW SWELL WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY TUE MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE HIGH IN THE W CENTRAL GULF WILL LINGER IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH WED MORNING. ANOTHER DRY AND BENIGN COLD FRONT WILL DROP IN FROM THE N AND CLIP THE NE GULF WATERS TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...PUSHING SE OF THE GULF BY WED AFTERNOON. EXPECT A BRIEF RETURN TO FRESH NW TO N WINDS WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE E OF 86W...WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-7 FT. HIGH PRES OVER THE SE UNITED STATES BECOMES THE DOMINATE FEATURE WED WITH RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE GULF BY WED NIGHT ALONG WITH 1-3 FT SEAS...EXCEPT UP TO 4-5 FT IN THE SE GULF AND YUCATAN CHANNEL. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY THU. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF LATE THU NIGHT REACHING FROM APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA TO NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS BY 12Z FRI MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL ACROSS TEXAS...WHILE MOVING S ACROSS FL AND E PORTIONS THROUGH SAT. ONLY MODERATE NELY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT UNLIKE THE PRECEDING FRONTAL PASSAGES. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ACROSS NW PORTIONS BUT HAS DRIFTED SLIGHTLY SE IN PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS CUBA AND N PORTIONS WHILE SE PORTION OF BOUNDARY MOVING INTO NE HONDURAS. NLY FLOW BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY SPILLING INTO HONDURAS AND W PORTIONS WHERE SEAS ARE LIKELY 4-6 FT IN GULF OF HONDURAS. MORNING SCAT PASSES SHOWED STRONG TRADES OFF COLOMBIA 25-30 KT EXTENDING N TO 13N WHERE SEAS WERE ASSUMED TO HAVE PEAKED THIS MORNING AT 10 FT. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON THEN PULSE TO 25 KT NEAR THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT THROUGH WED...THEN WILL INCREASE BACK TO 20-30 KT WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS YET AGAIN. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES EXPECTED ACROSS E HALF OF BASIN. GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO NW PORTIONS THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE TO NO WEATHER. HOWEVER...HIGH PRES MOVING INTO W GULF WILL INDUCE A VERY SHARP PRES GRADIENT BEHIND THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS HONDURAS...WHICH WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY TO THE SW CARIB BY TUE...WHERE FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN 90-120 NM OFFSHORE OF NICARAGUA THROUGH THU MORNING...BUILDING SEAS TO 8-10 FT. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SEAS OF 4-7 FT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH THE WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS OLD FRONT STALLED THIS MORNING BUT HAS SINCE BEGUN TO DRIFT NW AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS E OF 75W...WHILE W OF 75W...NEW FRONT NUDGING OLD FRONT SE ATTM. NEW FRONT HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE OF FL THIS MORNING AND MOVING QUICKLY E-SE. MID MORNING PARTIAL SCAT PASSES DEPICTED GALES AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS FAR S AS 26.5N AND WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE FRONT AND GALE WARNING WAS INITIATED AT 15Z...IN LINE WITH FL COASTAL WFO'S. GOOD CALL JAX AND MLB! FRONT NOW LOCATED FROM NEAR BUOY 41002 TO 28N76W TO JUST OFFSHORE OF FL KEYS AND THROUGH THE STRAITS...WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WLY FLOW SHIFTING OFFSHORE OF FL BEHIND FRONT. BUOY 41010 NOW UP TO 11 FT...AS IS 41002. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE E-SE THROUGH MON NIGHT BEFORE SLOWING...AND GRADUALLY MOVE TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF PREVIOUS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY 72 HRS. NEW FRONT TO REACH FROM 31N70W THROUGH CENTRAL BAHAMAS THEN NW CUBA BY 00Z THIS EVENING...30N65W TO E CENTRAL CUBA BY 12Z TUE MORNING...THEN VERY NEAR PREVIOUS BOUNDARY FROM 30N61.5W TO WINDWARD PASSAGE BY WED MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL BRIEFLY...THEN PUSH SE THU AND FRI WITH W PORTION GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO A SHEAR LINE ALONG 21.5N EXTENDING INTO CUBA. GALES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FRONT BY THIS EVENING WHILE GALES INCREASE TO 40 KT AHEAD OF FRONT. A DRY AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW PORTION TUE MORNING...TO SUSTAIN WLY GALES BETWEEN FRONTS...WHILE GALES CONTINUE ACROSS NE PORTIONS E OF FIRST FRONT. GALES ON BOTH SIDES OF BOUNDARIES LIFT N OF AREA BY 00Z WED. HIGH SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS N PORTIONS NEXT 24-36 HRS...BUILDING TO UP TO 18 FT TONIGHT...AND UP TO 20 FT BY SUNRISE TUE. FRONT TO MERGE AS THEY EXIT TO THE E OF 65W BY THU MORNING. THESE ACTIVE CONDITIONS FINALLY MOVE OUT OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY THU MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE SE UNITED STATES WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEAR HILTON HEAD SOUTH CAROLINA TO 23N65W BY 12 UTC THU. THIS HIGH WILL GET PUSHED TO THE SE TO NEAR 28N75W BY FRI MORNING AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE NW PORTION AS IT REACHES FROM 31N77W TO 27N80W FRI MORNING. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY EXTEND FROM 31N68W TO NEAR JUPITER FLORIDA FRI EVENING... THEN WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE ALONG 28N THROUGH SAT MORNING. THE MAJORITY OF THE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS REMAINING N OF 30.5N. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...STORMY E COAST PATTERN TO CONTINUE WITH TWO MORE DEEP LOWS FORECAST THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND AND NEXT WORK WEEK. THESE LOWS ARE SUGGESTED BY GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM E COAST AND WILL ALLOW FOR MORE REAL ESTATE AND NW FETCH BEHIND THEIR FRONTS...AND LIKELY TO PROVIDE MORE SIGNIFICANT AND LONGER LASTING NW SWELL EVENTS ACROSS THE AREA ATLANTIC. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TUE. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO TUE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.