000 AGXX40 KNHC 242001 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 301 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS THE COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT THROUGH THE BASIN AND NOW REACHES FROM THE STRAITS SW TO JUST OFFSHORE OF BELIZE. GALES WERE ASSUMED TO HAVE ENDED BY 12Z THIS MORNING...WITH WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN TODAY...WITH 25 KT AND GUSTS TO 30 KT OCCURRING EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS NE PORTIONS WHERE SEAS BUILT TO 9-12 FT...AND SIMILAR WINDS ACROSS THE WARM WATERS OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. WW3 HAS BEEN LOW ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN BY 1-4 FT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HI RES ECWAVE BETTER AND ONLY 1-2 FT LOW...AND IMPROVED WIND FIELD FROM NWPS EVEN MORE ACCURATE ACROSS ALL BUT NE PORTIONS. BUOY 42003 PEAKED AT 13 FT AT 18Z AND NOW DOWN TO 12. PEMEX BUOY IN W BAY OF CAMPECHE PEAKED JUST OVER 4M OVERNIGHT AND NOW DOWN TO 3.3M. WINDS AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE FROM NW TO SE AND MORE QUICKLY OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH LOW SHIFTING NE ALONG THE E COAST OF U.S. THE RIDGE FORCING THIS PRES GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS NE AND E MEXICO AND W TEXAS ATTM...AND WILL REORGANIZE TO THE SE AND REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS E MEXICO THROUGH SUN AS NEXT S/W SPAWNS ANOTHER LOW ACROSS MS VALLEY SUN. ASSOCIATED BENIGN COLD FRONT WILL DROP S INTO THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF BY LATE SUN AFTERNOON AND SWEEP E-SE ACROSS THE BASIN BY MON AFTERNOON. FRESH TO STRONG W-NW WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT E OF 92W BUILDING SEAS UP TO 8-10 FT IN THE E GULF. MODELS INDICATING BROAD AREA OF 30 KT BEHIND FRONT...AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE SUN EVENING AND NIGHT ACROSS NE PORTIONS. HIGH PRES TO THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH TUE NIGHT...SHIFTING NE AND BECOMING CENTERED OVER SE GEORGIA BY LATE WED NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL THEN DOMINATE THE BASIN BY THU MORNING WITH MUCH MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS IN PLACE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS VIS IMAGERY AND OBS FROM THIS MORNING SUGGEST THAT TRUE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS 40-45 NM NW OF ROPE CLOUD...WHICH IS PRE FRONTAL TROUGH AND WIND SHIFT MOVING SEWD ACROSS NW CARIB ATTM. FRONT LOOKS TO BE LOCATED FROM NW COAST OF ISLE OF YOUTH TO OFFSHORE OF NRN BELIZE WITH PRE FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING INTO WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SHIFTING EWD ACROSS E GULF OF HONDURAS. 16Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASSES SHOWED NNW WINDS 20-25 KT ACROSS NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS OF E YUCATAN AND BELIZE COASTS AND BEGINNING TO SPILL INTO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF GULF OF HONDURAS...WHERE WAVE MODELS WOULD NOT HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS WAVE GROWTH. HAVE HAND EDITED CURRENT WIND FCST AND HOPE THAT NEXT NWPS RUN WILL ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ELSEWHERE...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE SEAS ARE ALSO LIKELY IN THE 8-9 FT RANGE...AND GENERALLY THROUGH MON...DIMINISHING TO FRESH TRADES TUE THROUGH WED. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SE THROUGH SUN MORNING BEFORE STALLING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO E GULF OF HONDURAS. STRONG NLY WINDS BEHIND IT TONIGHT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE PEAK SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE CHANNEL...POSSIBLY BUILDING AND SHIFTING SWD...WHERE SEAS MAY REACH 6-8 FT IN N PORTIONS OF GULF. AS THE FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS THROUGH MON MORNING....ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE OF THE CHANNEL INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN MON EVENING AND NIGHT AND WASH OUT FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE EASTERN GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH LATE TUE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE IN THE W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN W OF 80W BY LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA BY LATE MON NIGHT WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO VEER AND STRONGEST PRES GRADIENT THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT TO CLIMO POSITION OFF OF COLOMBIA FOR LATE WED AND THU. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SEAS OF 4-7 FT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS HIGH PRES OPENING UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA ATTM. SLY GALES STARTED LAST NIGHT IN THE NW WATERS WHERE ASCAT PASSES CONFIRMED WINDS. MOST RECENT ASCAT PASSES GENERALLY MISSED THE NW PART BUT 41010 NOW 29 KT AND 12 FT BEHIND FRONT. FRONT LOOKS TO EXTEND FROM JUST E OF 41002 TO JUST OFFSHORE OF MIA AND N KEYS AND ACROSS THE STRAITS...WITH INCREASING GALES TO 40 KT N OF 27N E OF FRONT AND BRIEF MINIMAL WLY GALES BEHIND FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM JUST E OF BERMUDA TO 22.5N80W BY SUN MORNING THEN WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT STRETCHES FROM 31N59W TO 27N67W WHILE BECOMING STATIONARY TO 21N75W BY LATE SUN NIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT EXPECTED TO SHIFT N OF AREA BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z...THEN FRONT SHIFTING E OF AREA AND WINDS 20 KT OR LESS BY SUN AFTERNOON. HIGH PRES RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW PORTION BY LATE SUN NIGHT AND SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA BY LATE SUN NIGHT. THIS NEXT FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N75W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY MON AFTERNOON...FROM BERMUDA TO EASTERN CUBA LATE MON NIGHT...MOVING E OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS TUE NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST GALE FORCE WINDS WITH THIS NEXT FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N MON AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE MORNING AS ANOTHER LOW BOMBS OFF OF E COAST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE NW AND N CENTRAL WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT...EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO THE WESTERN BAHAMAS WED MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS THIRD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING TODAY. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.