000 AGXX40 KNHC 240627 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 127 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM APALACHEE BAY TO 25N86W TO 18N91W AND A SOLID LINE OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS IS WITHIN 90 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS THAT WERE BLOWING IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO HAVE RECENTLY DIMINISHED TO 20-30 KT WITH SIMILAR WINDS ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT. SEAS ARE 8-14 FT BEHIND THE FRONT BUT ARE IN THE PROCESS OF SUBSIDING WITH WINDS NOW BELOW GALE FORCE. FRESH TO STRONG S-SW WINDS ARE ALSO N OF 26N E OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE E-SE OF THE BASIN BY THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BEHIND IT BY THEN. RESIDUAL SEAS OF 8-9 FT BY THIS EVENING WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY SUN AFTERNOON. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMING CENTERED ALONG THE E CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST BY THIS EVENING. A WEST TO EAST RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE HIGH ACROSS THE GULF ALONG 23N/24N SUN MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP S INTO THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF BY LATE SUN AFTERNOON...SHIFTING E-SE OF THE BASIN BY MON AFTERNOON. FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE W-NW WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT E OF 90W BUILDING SEAS UP TO 8-10 FT IN THE E GULF. MEANWHILE HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH TUE NIGHT...SHIFTING NE AND BECOMING CENTERED OVER SE GEORGIA BY LATE WED NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL THEN DOMINATE THE BASIN BY THU MORNING WITH MUCH MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS IN PLACE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. RECENT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE SEAS ARE ALSO LIKELY IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON... DIMINISHING TO FRESH TUE THROUGH WED. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES SEAS 5 FT OR LESS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. A LINE OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS IS WITHIN 90 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT NOW IMPACTING THE CHANNEL. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIP SE OF THE CHANNEL BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS BEHIND IT AND SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE CHANNEL. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN FROM EASTERN CUBA BY SUN MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE OF THE CHANNEL INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN MON EVENING WASHING OUT FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE EASTERN GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH TUE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE IN THE W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN W OF 80W BY LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA BY TUE MORNING WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED NIGHT. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SEAS OF 4-7 FT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 27N65W TO 27N70W. MODERATE RETURN FLOW DOMINATES THE BASIN...EXCEPT IN THE NW WATERS WHERE RECENT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED SOUTHERLY WINDS ALREADY AT GALE FORCE AND A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ZONE AMZ111. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO N CENTRAL FLORIDA. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW PORTION BY THIS AFTERNOON EXTENDING FROM 31N77W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD WHILE INCREASING TO UP TO 40 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 18-20 FT ALONG 31N DURING THESE WINDS. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N69W TO 29N70W TO 27N73W TO 23N79W BY LATE TONIGHT (SAT NIGHT)...THEN WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN AS IT STRETCHES FROM 31N59W TO 27N67W WHILE BECOMING STATIONARY TO 21N75W BY LATE SUN NIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE TONIGHT...THEN TO 20 KT OR LESS BY SUN AFTERNOON. HIGH PRES RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW PORTION BY LATE SUN NIGHT AND SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA BY LATE SUN NIGHT. THIS NEXT FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N75W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY MON AFTERNOON...FROM BERMUDA TO EASTERN CUBA LATE MON NIGHT...MOVING E OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS TUE NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE LIKELIHOOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS WITH THIS NEXT FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 29N MON AFTERNOON THROUGH MON NIGHT WHERE GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WORDING IS IN PLACE FOR ZONES AMZ111>115. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE NW AND N CENTRAL WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT...EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO THE WESTERN BAHAMAS WED MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS THIRD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.