000 AGXX40 KNHC 231954 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 254 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS UPPER LOW ACROSS TEXAS/OK SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX...AND SUPPORTING ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS N PORTIONS OF FRONTAL ZONE NEARLY BISECTING THE GULF TODAY. WEAK SFC LOW ALONG FRONT WAS OFFSHORE OF MOUTH OF MS RIVER THIS MORNING AND HAS SHIFTED NE AND NEARLY W COASTAL PART OF FL PANHANDLE...WITH FRONT EXTENDING SW TO 25N90W TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND EASILY IDENTIFIED BY ROPE CLOUD CURRENTLY SEEN IN VIS IMAGERY. STRONG NWLY FLOW BEHIND FRONT HAS GENERATED LARGE SEAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH PRESENT...WITH OBS SUGGESTING 8-13 FT S OF 27N TO NEAR 20N. 42055 HAS JUMPED TO 10 FT IN PAST 2 HOURS...WHILE PEMEX BUOY BMO IN BAY OF CAMPECHE NOW 3 M. RECENT ~16Z ASCAT PASSES SHOWED AREAS OF 30 KT NNW WINDS OFF OF VERACRUZ AND E OF 96W FROM 22N TO 25N...LIKELY MISSING PEAK WINDS NEAR THE COAST IN THIS AREA. OB FROM SACRIFICE ISLAND OFF OF VERACRUZ NOW SUSTAINED 34 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND GALE WARNING IS VERIFYING. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST GALES SW PORTIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH BROAD AREA OF 25-30 KT BEHIND FRONT TO SHIFT E AND NE OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z SAT. WW3 SEAS 1-3 FT LOW ACROSS W PORTIONS ATTM WITH MAX SEAS 11 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVE WHILE NEW HI RES ECWAVE...UKMET WAVE...AND TAFB NWPS ALL PEAK AT 14 FT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BLEND HEAVILY WITH NWPS. GALES CURRENTLY S OF 25N W OF 95W WILL SHIFT SWD AND REMAINED CONFINED TO WATERS OFF OF VERACRUZ BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AROUND 30 KT 00-06Z TONIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO 8 FT OR LESS BASIN-WIDE BY LATE SAT NIGHT. A WEST TO EAST RIDGE WILL EXTEND ALONG 25N SUN MORNING SHIFTING SOUTH AND WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF SUN EVENING WITH FRESH TO STRONG W-NW WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT BEHIND FRONT SUN NIGHT. THE REINFORCING FRONT WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE SE GULF BY LATE MON MORNING WITH THE RIDGE RETURNING ALONG 25N MON AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS RECENT ASCAT PASSES SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TUE NIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9-10 FT EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...NW ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING WEAKLY S ACROSS BASIN YIELDING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN...WHILE FLOW IN NW CARIB OPENING UP INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF FRONT THERE. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN VERY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING...REACHING FROM FL KEYS TO W CUBA TO CENTRAL BELIZE BY 18Z SAT...THEN GRADUALLY STALL AND WEAKEN FROM E CENTRAL CUBA TO N CENTRAL HONDURAS SUN. MODELS SUGGEST ACTIVE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH NW CARIB. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY INDICATING NLY WINDS AROUND 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH NW PORTIONS...WITH POSSIBILITY OF 25 KT ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL SAT AFTERNOON EVENING. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SWEEP INTO THE ATLC SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON WITH HIGH PRES BEHIND THIS BENIGN BOUNDARY TO TIGHTEN PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TUE AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS DOWN ALONG THE SPINE OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WITHIN 60 NM OF NICARAGUA THAT WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND ACROSS NW HALF OF BASIN THROUGH MID WEEK. OTHERWISE...MAINLY MODERATE TRADES AND 3-5 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT 4-7 FT IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM 28N65W TO 27.5N74W THEN BECOME DIFFUSE AS IT TURNS NW TOWARD GA COASTAL WATERS EXPECTED TO BECOME ILL DEFINED OVERNIGHT AS GULFMEX FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE W. WEAK RIDGING OTHERWISE PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILING...AND FRESHENING SLY FLOW ACROSS FL COASTAL WATERS. SEAS GENERALLY 4-5 FT ACROSS MOST OF AREA...AND INCREASING TO 6 FT ACROSS FAR NW WATERS IN SLY FLOW. THE FRONT IN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT. ELONGATED LOW PRES ALONG THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SE U.S. OVERNIGHT WITH PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND NW ATLC RIDGE INCREASING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT TO GALE FORCE IN THE NW WATERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT... SPREADING EASTWARD TO AMZ113 AND AMZ115 THROUGH SAT. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW ZONES SAT MORNING WITH GALE WARNING FORCE W-NW WINDS ALSO EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN SEAS BUILD 15-18 FT ALONG 31N BY SAT AFTERNOON/EVE IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N76W TO 26N80W BY SAT AFTERNOON...FROM 31N66W TO 22.5N80W BY SUN MORNING...WHILE GALE FORCE WINDS LIFT N AND OUT OF AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT. FRONT TO THEN STALL AND WASH OUT FROM 28N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA THROUGH MON MORNING...WITH WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPING SE OF FRONT ACROSS SE BAHAMAS. UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT E ACROSS N AMERICA AND ACROSS E PORTIONS OF U.S. THEN GRADUALLY REORGANIZE ACROSS W ATLC THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL INDUCE A SERIES OF COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE W ATLC FOR VERY STORMY WEATHER AND SEVERAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES SWEEPING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW WATERS MON MORNING WITH FRESH TO NEAR GALE SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 27N STARTING LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THIS NEXT FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N73W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA MON AFTERNOON...THEN FROM BERMUDA TO THE SE BAHAMAS TUE MORNING...WHILE PARENT LOW BOMBS OFF MID ATLC COAST. CURRENTLY DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE INCREASING TREND TOWARD SW GALES AHEAD OF FRONT N OF 28N THROUGH TUE MORNING...WHILE ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY ALLOW FOR SECONDARY LOW TO DEVELOP OFF OF HATTERAS TUE WED TO MAINTAIN HIGH SEAS N AND NW PORTIONS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO SAT. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO SAT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.