000 AGXX40 KNHC 230645 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1011 MB LOW PRES NEAR 28N91W WITH A COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW THROUGH 26N94W TO 21N97W. A RECENT ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASS ALREADY INDICATED 30-34 KT NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS AND IN THE W CENTRAL OFFSHORE WATERS ZONE GMZ017 WITH FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT. MEANWHILE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS N OF 26N E OF THE FRONT TO 86W. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 30N87W TO 25N91W TO 18N95W THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE LOW MOVES JUST NE OF THE AREA INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA...THEN FROM 30N85W TO 25N87W TO 20N90W LATE TONIGHT (FRI NIGHT)...PUSHING E-SE OF THE BASIN ON SAT. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE SW GULF GMZ023 ZONE THIS MORNING...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE BY LATE TONIGHT. THE LATEST TAFB-NWPS INDICATES SEAS BUILDING UP TO 16 FT IN THE SW GULF ZONE DURING THE GALE FORCE WINDS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO 8 FT OR LESS BASIN-WIDE BY LATE SAT NIGHT. A WEST TO EAST RIDGE WILL EXTEND ALONG 25N SUN MORNING SHIFTING SOUTH AND WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF WITH FRESH TO STRONG W-NW WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT BEHIND IT. THE REINFORCING FRONT WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE SE GULF BY LATE MON MORNING WITH THE RIDGE RETURNING ALONG 25N MON AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. RECENT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TUE NIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN LATE TONIGHT (FRI NIGHT) REACHING FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE WESTERN GULF OF HONDURAS SAT AFTERNOON...THEN STALLING AND WEAKENING FROM EASTERN CUBA TO N CENTRAL HONDURAS SUN MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY KEEPS WINDS 20 KT OR LESS BEHIND THE FRONT ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL 25 KT WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT AS STRONG RIDGING SETS UP ALONG THE SPINE OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WITHIN 60 NM OF NICARAGUA. OTHERWISE...MAINLY MODERATE TRADES AND 3-5 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT 4-6 FT IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N65W TO 27N72W WILL SLIDE E OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS CURRENTLY PREVAIL...EXCEPT 2 FT OR LESS INSIDE THE BAHAMAS. LOW PRES CURRENTLY IN THE N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND ATLC HIGH PRES NEAR 33N72W WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG SE-S WINDS N OF 28N E OF FLORIDA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT (FRI NIGHT WHILE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT IN ITS WAKE. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE IN THE NW WATERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT... SPREADING EASTWARD TO AMZ113 AND AMZ115 THROUGH SAT. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER AMZ111 SAT MORNING WITH GALE FORCE W-NW WINDS ALSO EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 20 FT ALONG 31N BY SAT AFTERNOON IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N76W TO 28N78W TO 24.5N81W BY SAT AFTERNOON... FROM 31N67W TO 28N69W TO 23N79W BY LATE SAT NIGHT...THEN WILL WEAKEN WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE WHILE IT EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA TO EASTERN CUBA SUN MORNING...THEN STALLS AND WASHES OUT FROM 29N65W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS THROUGH MON MORNING. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW WATERS MON MORNING WITH FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 27N STARTING LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THIS NEXT FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N73W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA MON AFTERNOON...THEN FROM BERMUDA TO THE SE BAHAMAS TUE MORNING. CURRENTLY DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE WINDS OF 30 KT ALONG 31N AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS WHILE THE GEFS 34 KT WIND PROBABILITIES DO INCREASE TO 10-20 PERCENT N OF 29N MON THROUGH TUE BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO SAT. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO SAT. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING SAT NIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.