000 AGXX40 KNHC 221855 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 155 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MED CONFIDENCE. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK LOW PRES OVER SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. THIS IS RELATED TO AN ACTIVE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES MOVING EASTWARD. THE LOW IS WEAK FOR NOW...BUT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES FROM THE TEXAS COAST TOWARD THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE FRI...THEN FARTHER NE TO EVENTUALLY FORM INTO A NOR'EASTER ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE GULF THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. OBSERVATIONS FROM ELEVATED PLATFORMS IN THE NW GULF ARE CURRENTLY INDICATED STRONG SE FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW PRES...BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE STILL ONLY SHOWING 10 TO 15 KT FOR THE MOST PART. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON REGIONAL RADARS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND OVER ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS BUT LITTLE FARTHER OFFSHORE. GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUT ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THE LOW PRES THROUGH THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS THE LIKELIHOOD OF GALE WARNINGS OVER THE WESTERN GULF FRI AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE STRONG HIGH PRES EXPECTED OVER TEXAS AND NE MEXICO BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS TO NEAR GALE WARNING FORCE ARE ASSURED...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF MINIMAL GALE WARNINGS OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE VERACRUZ COAST. THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND THE UKMET CONTINUE TO INDICATE GALE WARNINGS OFF THE TAMAULIPAS COAST FARTHER NORTH...SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF. THE SREF CONTINUES TO SHOW A GOOD CHANCE OF GALE WARNINGS OFF VERACRUZ...BUT IS MUCH WEAKER OFF TAMAULIPAS. GIVEN INSTABILITY IN THE MARINE LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH ADVECTION OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...AREAS OFF S TEXAS AND NE MEXICO MAY AT LEAST SEE FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE WARNING FORCE FRI...PROMPTING THE NEED FOR THE GALE WARNING AREA TO BE EXPANDED NORTHWARD. ELSEWHERE FRESH TO STRONG FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE GULF FRI INTO SAT BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL EXIT THE SE GULF LATE SAT. FOR SUN THROUGH NEXT WEEK...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PIVOTING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MID ATLC STATES WILL PUSH A WEAKER REINFORCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND NE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH MOST MODELS INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG NW FLOW ACROSS THE NE GULF ON MON...DIMINISHING TUE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 14 UTC CONFIRMED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS OFF COLOMBIA. OTHERWISE MODERATE TRADE WINDS PERSIST AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF THE AREA REMAINS WEAK AND DISPLACED EASTWARD AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE EXCEPTION ARE THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE WINDS WILL PULSE TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE SAT...DRIFT SE AND STALL FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE NICARAGUA BY LATE SUN AND BECOME DIFFUSE MON. FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT SAT AND SUN. EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK EVERYWHERE BUT OFF COLOMBIA. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK FRONT IS MOVING EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRES THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRI. THIS IS KEEPING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RELATIVELY WEAK AND DISPLACED EASTWARD RESULTING IN LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW OVER THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI...FOLLOWED BY INCREASED SE FLOW OVER THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS AND OFF NE FLORIDA BY LATE FRI...AS THE LOW PRES IN THE GULF DEEPENS AND SHIFTS NE TO THE MID ATLC COAST. THE WINDS N OF 25N W OF 70W WILL VEER MORE S TO SW THROUGH FRI NIGHT...AND INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE WARNING STRENGTH N OF 30N W OF 70W THROUGH EARLY SAT AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE SE GEORGIA COAST EARLY SAT MORNING. THE GALE WARNINGS ARE WELL ADVERTISED IN BOTH THE LATEST SREF AND GFS ENSEMBLES SWEEPING EASTWARD N OF 30N FROM SAT MORNING THROUGH LATE SAT. ELSEWHERE N OF 25N FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 8 FT TO AS HIGH AS 17 FT CLOSER TO 31N. WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH SAT NIGHT N OF 25N...WITH LINGERING SWELL SUBSIDING THROUGH LATE SUN AS THE FRONT SHIFTS E OF THE AREA AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MIGRATING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MID ATLC STATES WILL SUPPORT THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATE MON AND TUE BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WESTERLIES PRIMARILY N OF 25N...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL REMAIN GALE WARNING FORCE PER THE GFS ENSEMBLE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE FRI. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING FRI. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING SAT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.