000 AGXX40 KNHC 180607 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 107 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MED CONFIDENCE. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NW TO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS AND A PAIR OF SURFACE HIGHS ARE OVER THE NW PORTION...ONE OVER THE LA COASTAL PLAINS AND THE OTHER OVER THE W-CENTRAL WATERS NEAR 25N95W. ANTICYCLONIC 5-10 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED W OF THE TROUGH. A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE NE GULF RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO THE N OF 26N AND E OF 88W...WHILE NE-E 15 KT FLOW WITH 3-5 FT SEAS IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE SE WATERS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN GULF IN THE FORM OF A RIDGE EXTENDING BUILDING FROM THE NE TX COASTAL A PLAINS TO THE FL STRAITS TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHERLY 10-15 KT WINDS AND SEAS 2-4 FT ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS...EXCEPT NW 15-20 KT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE N-CENTRAL WATERS TODAY. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL PUSH THE TROUGH E OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON MON AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO NEAR 21N97W WITH ANOTHER HIGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE NEAR 24N94W ON TUE. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE N-CENTRAL WATERS EARLY TUE...AND RACE E THROUGH THE CENTRAL WATERS ON TUE NIGHT...AND THROUGH THE EASTERN WATERS ON WED LEAVING A RIDGE FROM NE TX TO FL STRAITS AGAIN ON WED NIGHT. THE POST-FRONTAL GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN ON WED NIGHT INCREASING THE NE FLOW TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NW WATERS EARLY THU MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT E ON THU AFTERNOON WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP NEAR 25N94W ON THU NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS WITH 7-11 FT SEAS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA LATE EACH NIGHT THROUGH EARLY EACH MORNING THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE 15-20 KT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND EASTERLY 10-15 KT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK TROUGH DISSECTS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH N-NE 5-10 KT WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL BECOME NE AT 15- 20 KT TONIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 19N W OF 78W...AND N-NE 10 KT WINDS ELSEWHERE N OF 16N W OF 75W. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME MORE ON MON WITH NE 15-20 KT EXPECTED EVERYWHERE N OF 15N W OF 75W THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX TUE-THU WITH THE FLOW BECOMING E-SE 10-15 KT LATE TUE AND 5-10 KT ON WED-THU. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN INITIAL COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 29N65W TO HISPANIOLA AND A SECOND WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE WATERS N OF 30N BETWEEN 60-77W. THE INITIAL FRONT WILL WASH OUT ACROSS TROPICAL WATERS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH MON...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIDGE THROUGH THE SECOND FRONT TODAY. NE-E-SE 15-20 KT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH 5-8 FT SEAS IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 25N...WHILE 10-15 KT E-SE FLOW AND 2-4 FT SEAS IS OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE BAHAMAS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE GA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY 20-30 KT WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM E OF THE FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH LATE MON AS THE FRONT PASSES E OF 65W. THE POST FRONTAL NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N WITHIN 300 NM W OF THE FRONT BY THIS EVENING...AND SHIFT E WITH THE FRONT THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. MOSTLY NW 15-20 KT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 660 NM W OF THE FRONT ON MON NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT E OFF THE FL COAST ALONG 29N ON MON NIGHT... REACHING NEAR 29N71W ON TUE AFTERNOON WITH ANTICYCLONIC 5-15 KT WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA W OF 65W. THE S-SW FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE NW WATERS EARLY TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON WED WHICH SHOULD REACH FROM BERMUDA TO NW CUBA THU AFTERNOON. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.