000 AGXX40 KNHC 170539 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1239 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MED CONFIDENCE. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NW TO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS AND A SURFACE HIGH IS MEANDERING OVER THE NW COASTAL PLAINS. NW 15 KT WINDS AND SEAS 4-6 FT ARE OBSERVED BETWEEN THE TROUGH AXIS AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OTHERWISE 5- 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS EXIST W OF 88W. THE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH ATLC HIGH PRES IS SUPPORTING NE 10-15 KT WINDS AND 2-4 FT SEAS N OF 25N E OF 88W AND NE 15-20 KT AND 4-7 FT SEAS S OF 25N E OF 88W. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO A N-S ORIENTATION ALONG 89W TONIGHT. THE WESTERN GULF HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT INCREASING THE NORTHERLY FLOW TO 15-20 KT/SEAS 3-5 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF ON SUN AND PUSH THE INVERTED TROUGH EASTWARD. HIGH PRES WILL WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON MON AS THE ATLC RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND THE INVERTED TROUGH IS THEN PUSHED W TO ALONG 90W ON MON WITH 15 KT EASTERLY FLOW AND 3-5 FT SEAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SE GULF. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON TUE WITH THE N-S TROUGH MEANDERING ALONG 89W WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS W OF 90W...AND SE-S 5-10 KT FLOW E OF THE TROUGH. REINFORCING NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MOVE THE TROUGH E AS A COLD FRONT ON TUE NIGHT WITH THE FRONT INLAND FL ON WED WITH N- NE 15-20 KT WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF ON WED NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS WITH 7-10 FT SEAS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA LATE EACH NIGHT THROUGH EARLY EACH MORNING THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE 15-20 KT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND EASTERLY 10-15 KT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 6-8 FT SEAS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS WILL SUBSIDE TO 4-7 FT TONIGHT. NORTHERLY 10 KT WINDS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL GRADUALLY CLOCK TO THE NE AT 5-10 KT ON SUN AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND STALLS. THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THE NE FLOW TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY MON...THEN RELAX SOME BY EARLY TUE WITH THE FLOW BECOMING E-SE 10-15 KT LATE TUE AND 5-10 KT ON WED. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N61W TO N-CENTRAL CUBA WITH SW 20-30 KT WINDS AND SEAS OF 8-13 FT OBSERVED N OF 26N E OF THE FRONT. NORTHERLY 15-20 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED W OF FRONT WITH 5-7 FT SEAS NE OF THE BAHAMAS. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY THIS MORNING INCREASING THE NORTHERLY FLOW TO 20-25 KT...SEAS 7-9 FT...ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 30N BETWEEN 65-75W. THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT NE-E-SE 15-20 KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA N OF THE BAHAMAS BY THIS EVENING WITH A FEW EMBEDDED PATCHES OF NE 20-25 KT NEAR 28N67W THIS AFTERNOON. THE 15-20 KT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NW WATERS AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE SE GA COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WITH SOUTHERLY 20-30 KT WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N WITHIN ABOUT 270 NM OF THE FRONT ON SUN...AND CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH LATE MON. THE POST FRONTAL NW FLOW IS EXPECTED AT 20-25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N ON SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON AFTERNOON...THEN MOSTLY NW 15-20 KT CONDITIONS WITHIN 660 NM W OF THE FRONT ON MON NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT E OFF THE FL COAST ALONG 29N ON MON NIGHT...REACHING NEAR 29N71W ON TUE AFTERNOON WITH ANTICYCLONIC 5-15 KT WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA W OF 65W. THE S-SW FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE NW WATERS EARLY TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON WED WHICH SHOULD REACH FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA EARLY THU. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.