000
AGXX40 KNHC 161849
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
149 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.
MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 24N84W WILL MOVE SE AND
DISSIPATE NEAR W CUBA ON SAT. AN TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG 89W
WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH TUE NIGHT. NLY WINDS 20-25 KT WITH
SEAS 8-10 FT ACROSS THE FAR SW GULF WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20
KT AND LESS THAN 8 FT LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS WITH
SEAS 5 FT OR LESS ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.
MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS WITH 7-10 FT SEAS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG 
THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA LATE EACH NIGHT THROUGH EARLY EACH 
MORNING THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE 15-20 KT CONDITIONS EXPECTED 
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND EASTERLY 10-15 KT 
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS 
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 6-8 FT SEAS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS 
THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS WILL SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FT ON SUN. NORTHERLY
10 KT WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NE AT 5-10 KT ON SUN AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND STALLS. THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE THE NE FLOW TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN ON
MON...THEN RELAX SOME WITH THE FLOW BECOMING E-SE 10-15 KT ON TUE.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.
MWW3 NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TROUGH OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA WILL STALL. COLD FRONT
OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA WILL MOVE RAPIDLY E AND MERGE WITH
TROUGH FROM 27N65W TO 19N68W SAT....THEN STALL OVER THE TROPICAL
WATERS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SUN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA SUN...EXTEND FROM 31N70W TO E
CUBA ON SUN NIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH SE WATERS ON MON NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT W OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NE
PORTION OF THE AREA MON...THEN DECREASE TUE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE W OF
THE FRONT MON AND EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA ON TUE NIGHT WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO PORT CANAVERAL.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER DGS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.