000 AGXX40 KNHC 160550 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1250 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MED CONFIDENCE. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TRAILS A COLD FRONT SE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND EXTENDS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY E ACROSS THE E-CENTRAL WATERS WITH CONSIDERABLE SHOWERS OVER THE NE WATERS IN THE WARM SECTOR. NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS AND SEAS OF 7-11 FT CURRENTLY OBSERVED W OF FRONT WILL DIMINISH TO ABOUT 10 KT/SEAS 3-5 FT TONIGHT. ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE LOW WILL MOVE ROUGHLY ESE TO OVER THE SE GULF TONIGHT...THEN DRIFT E ON SUN GRADUALLY LOSING IDENTITY NEAR W CUBA. HIGH PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT THROUGH SUN WHILE AN ATLC RIDGE BUILDS W ACROSS NORTHERN FL ACROSS AND THE NE GULF. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING N-S ALONG 89W TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A 5-10 KT WINDS. AS THE WESTERN GULF HIGH STRENGTHENS THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT/SEAS 3-4 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND PUSH THE INVERTED TROUGH EASTWARD ON SUN. HIGH PRES WILL WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON MON AS THE ATLC RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND THE INVERTED TROUGH IS THEN PUSHED W TO ALONG 90W ON MON WITH E 15-20 KT FLOW WITH 3-5 FT SEAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SE GULF WATERS. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON TUE WITH THE N-S TROUGH MEANDERING ALONG 89W WITH E-SE 10-15 KT FLOW E OF THE TROUGH AND ANTICYCLONIC 5-10 FLOW W OF THE TROUGH. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS WITH 7-10 FT SEAS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA LATE EACH NIGHT THROUGH EARLY EACH MORNING THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE 15-20 KT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND EASTERLY 10-15 KT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 6-8 FT SEAS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS WILL SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FT ON SUN. NORTHERLY 10 KT WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL GRADUALLY CLOCK TO THE NE AT 5-10 KT ON SUN AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND STALLS. THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THE NE FLOW TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN ON MON...THEN RELAX SOME WITH THE FLOW BECOMING E-SE 10-15 KT ON TUE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N64W TO N-CENTRAL CUBA WITH SW 20-25 KT WINDS AND SEAS OF 8-12 FT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP N OF 26N E OF THE FRONT TODAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED OVER THE FAR NW WATERS. THIS WESTERN FRONT WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARD TODAY WITH 15-20 KT FLOW PUSHING THE FRONT TO A POSITION FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT...THEN MERGING WITH THE EASTERN COLD FRONT ALONG POSITION FROM 30N55W TO THE MONA PASSAGE LATE SAT. BY THEN N-E 15-20 KT WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AND NE OF THE BAHAMAS. 15-20 KT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP OVER THE NW WATERS ON SAT NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE SE GA COAST ON EARLY SUN. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WITH A S -SW-NW 20-30 KT WIND SHIFT EXPECTED N OF 28N ALONG THE FRONT ON SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AS THE FRONT REACHES FROM 31N59W TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON MON NIGHT AND CONTINUES E TO A POSITION FROM 24N55W TO THE LEEWARDS LATE TUE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.