000 AGXX40 KNHC 150612 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 112 AM EST THU JAN 15 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS W OF THE LOW AND FRONT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL E OF THE FRONT OVER THE SW WATERS WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE W OF THE LOW AND FRONT...3-5 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN GULF...2-4 FT OVER THE SE GULF...AND 2-3 FT OVER THE NE GULF. THE LOW WILL SHIFT ENE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT SE OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRI/EARLY SAT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL SUN WHEN A SECOND FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW WATERS. THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NW WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN PREVAILS THROUGH MON. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA DEPICT A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-9 FT RANGE OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...5-7 FT OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...3-4 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 9-10 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL DECREASE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE FRI NIGHT. THE NE TO E SWELLS AFFECTING THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE. BY LATE FRI/EARLY SAT...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N67W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 7-8 FT RANGE OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS...AND IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE W OF THE BAHAMAS. A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND MERGE WITH THE LEADING FRONT. THE MERGED FRONT WILL SHIFT E OF THE AREA SAT. A THIRD COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS SUN. THIS FRONT WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE PRECEDING FRONTS AND STRENGTHEN WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS SUN AND MON. THE FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN A SET OF LARGE NW SWELLS INTO THE AREA...WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 12 FT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS MON. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.